E Market Briefing For Friday, May 31

(Holy Guacamole... here we go again; Tariff-Man 'tweets' policies.)

Increasingly everyone recognizes 'things are just not quite right' with the stock market. One major institution described it thusly and I totally concur. It is however, problematic when some defer to sentiment, or merely a slowing growth trend (actually the GDP was a hair better than most estimates), or of course trot-out Fibonacci numbers as affirming further downside prospects.

Actually of course markets can move to lower levels 'if' the backdrop doesn't change. That's why you see net tactical exposure contract; and some of that just happens to be seasonal, as we've forewarned for a couple months was a set-up for sell in March (lightening-up), with expectations of a correction, but not catastrophe, in April and May.  


April of course featured 'distribution under-cover of a strong S&P and DJ'; while the FANG & MAGA stocks came under pressure. What we have had now is not 'peak bearishness' as of yet; but an expected consolidation at minimum; with a market moving into potentially an 'indecision' pattern that very much relates to what happens going forward in terms of fundamentals.  

That 'indecision prospect' is wrecked by the President's latest tariff move to arbitrarily levy imports from Mexico by 5% now and 25% by October, if they don't stop illegal immigration (?). More about that in the main video. Now we will see if this impacts the growing trend of Americans retiring 'to' Mexico (of course the risks of investing or banking there are well-known; and do matter depending on where one contemplates getting involved). Puerto Vallarta in my view was a great value and fun place; but so was Acapulco before lots of things 'changed' (cartels etc.). I have friends who bought in PV; love that AT&T wireless LTE is there; and they can work (as did I) 'as if' they were in California. The difference of course is they are not; and that's why I said I'd be more comfortable renting, not buying, if I were spending time there.  

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