Market Briefing For Friday, June 5

We'll get to 'the other side' - of current challenges, in time, but not just yet. That applies to a number of issues: the stock market, civil disobedience or protests; and importantly what is a mixed-message about the pandemic.  

It's also a 'super-cap' market that slightly surpassed S&P 3100 resistance; so was due for some exhaustion, or at least an attempt to blunt the upside angle-of-attack thrust. Liquidity and monetary backdrops remain favorable, while there are a myriad of questions about how things go looking ahead.  

It quite a contrast right now; for a market propelled by the 'Fed Put', with its dangerous ramifications down-the-road, various kinds of perspectives about disrespect (ranging from media that endorses militarization to those inclined to criticize a group of girls cleaning graffiti off a Federal building 'as if' doing a good deal to clean up the Capital is somehow to be discouraged), or even morale in high levels of government. Most Americans don't like bullies, and they don't like contrived empathy either. They do like helping true suffering.  

I look forward to the country moving forward with Middle Class revival, as it seems to targeted by those lashing-out violently (not just criminal thugs, but groups that if they prevailed, actually would have financial ramifications). So there is a contrast between legitimate protests and agenda activists. Dare I show preference for corporate donations to help small businesses recover, instead of funding 'feel good' causes, as often are anti-capitalist in-nature?  

I suppose there's enough blame to go around, but having heard a bit from members directly or indirectly impacted by looting, it seems that damage to private businesses is more significant to address, than legal defense funds for the perpetrators of looting. Big companies aren't going to have favorable community relations, if they behave in self-serving fashion, rather than being supportive and growing their consumer/customer base. (I won't relate this in precise fashion to Amazon (AMZN), who would do well anyway during a 'stay-home' era; but there are more antitrust rumblings going on.

Executive summary: 

  • The 'other side' refers to a correction of the extended S&P advance, as we move above 3100, which was ideally about as high as 'this' thrust is likely to achieve, although not as high as we can go later this summer.
  • There's perhaps recognition that the Fed's bond-buying I noted last night provides corporations ammunition to engage in buybacks, allows more leverage than is wise (given few sectors actually increasing business at any appreciable pace).
  • There too, there's push-back as economists at this point are recognizing 'the other side' of the coin about money-printing, aside from necessity in the current jobless / pandemic situation, since the Fed was expansive in excess even before WuFlu arrived.
  • Then there's the 'other' side of recent optimism about reduced viremia, as COVID-19 case levels were picking-up before the Minnesota crisis hit, and now, while some claim otherwise, major cities are seeing cases rise.
  • We'll know the impact of this in terms of severe illness or hospitalization in a week or two, fingers crossed that medical infrastructure is prepared, at least better than before, since there is no proven treatment as of yet.
  • If the other side of the protests is that we don't get a huge outbreak, it's for one reason, that being the wearing of masks by mostly everyone.
  • By the way most people are either protecting their neighborhoods (that can become vigilante justice if carried too far), while police departments have things under control, despite one network condemning police, while another calls for troops in the cities.. perhaps better reporting and a lot less advocacy might be in order.
  • Most everyone is against police brutality, as the issue is morphed into a broader civil rights issue largely talking about lack of opportunity.. as was the case more so decades ago than now, a few now speculate.
  • Throughout the pandemic I argued that 'everyone' wearing masks made total sense (always was the case in Asia) and that authorities distorted the importance simply because there was inadequate supply.
  • The other side of this situation is supply is no longer constrained, but the population largely argues the merits of wearing or not, which means lots of people risk exposure especially where those near them aren't masked at all (nobody will be at dinner, most won't other than where required).
  • So as or if COVID-19 picks up somewhat as the reopening proceeds, we will see a new irony, some cities/states that will pretend all is better; and as I understand the need to reopen, clearly illness is 'the other side'.
  • Florida is a good example, most of the State goes to 'Phase 2' tomorrow and yet none of the significant metro areas meet the standards (highest single-day case numbers for the State were reported today), and yes it's partially resulting from more testing, so closely watch hospitalizations.
  • I will add that only the Miami-Ft Lauderdale-West Palm area is excluded from the Phase 2 opening, perhaps as 'rumor has it' the President wants the key part of the Republican Convention to be held in Orlando.  
  • Airlines are optimistically expanding flights somewhat; and signalling an improved travel experience (aside required masks and little food service) by such things as American (AAL) reopening Admiral Clubs, as Delta (DAL) will now restore automatic upgrades for Elite Frequent Flyers.
  • Surveys show however that over 60% of normal frequent flyers remain unwilling to fly, or consider it hazardous to their health.
  • A notable item: increased talk of 'defunding police' and not just in NYC, where expenses during the pandemic, or the protests, blow-out budget constraints, along with lower tax revenue bases in years ahead.
  • Note that some of these cities are not just calling for more police training or reforms, but rather 'community' policing which can be very political.
  • Advocating reforms (to police like many European cities) is one thing, at the same time true 'community' policing alone would increase crimes, a little detail especially observed by 'black' business owners who suffered damage or loss to the stores and businesses during the rioting.
  • By the way, few noticed the early investigation of George Floyd's killing, reveals that both he and the Officer who choked him, had worked before in the same restaurant, as a bouncer and security guard.
  • That opens the possibility the entire episode was something 'other' than universally protested 'random' over-enforcement by police, or both, even 'intent' if there was a grudge or who knows what (beyond the story).
  • For now nobody knows if there was animosity (changes the backdrop of this horror if so, and perhaps the charge), but few will talk much about that yet, since it would modify the overall narrative of the entire case.
  • Very little pertinent financial news during the expected consolidation, at the same time China indeed (U.S. pending) restores limited flights.
  • The history of 'organized' intelligence gathering by proliferating groups intending to divide is real, but requires careful distinction from protests.
  • By the way after flip-flopping, 700 troops of the 82nd Airborne now are returning to North Carolina, from being deployed in Washington DC.
  •  Stock market behavior 'tried to correct' peppered by rebounds, while at day's end we find shorts yet-again scrambling to be flat overnight.

  

In-sum, tonight, after the S&P (SPY) ran back up into the close, futures are firmer suggesting another effort to bounce Friday, though probably constrained as should be the case after the move that's preceded.  

Daily action was very choppy, but overall irresolute at S&P resistance. I'm very late tonight (so many issues that are controversial and unclear, with serious splits among parties and citizens about the best ways to handle matters). I will just share the charts here as other aspects have been touched upon. (NYA)

I suspect we'll try the upside again Friday morning, but dubious if it will be sustainable into the weekend, barring some sort of political breakthrough approach to dealing with matters, or they simply simmer down. Don't forget we will likely see an increase in fairly serious COVID-19 illness too, however fingers are crossed that all the wearing of masks will minimize that a bit. (COMP) (VIX)

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