Market Briefing For Friday, July 5

Economic fireworks are more like enjoying a 'sparkler' than any sort of a 'Roman candle' or more impressive display. But steady and slow isn't a bad thing, because the 'burn' lasts longer, rather than a quick pop, then it fades.  

  

(Note: throughout this I've said don't short this market; don't fight it even as the so-called high-wealth accounts were constantly exiting equity markets. So of course I expect later Summer corrections, adjusted for news reactions of which several significant ones are likely; but not a market catastrophe.)

This economy has been struggling in a few ways for over a year; and that's oddly enough the good news; because so many stocks (other than leaders like FANG or MAGA) have corrected rotationally over this time. That tends to reinforce the idea of corrections and adjustments; not some sort of huge blow-off spike that then smashes to earth leaving only smoke in its wake.  

In a sense that means the fireworks burn out over time; and there are always more coming, at least for awhile. So the show doesn't entirely end; it shifts. I remain skeptical about how far the show can extend new high celebrations, for the S&P particularly in the Summer; but way in advance I can see how it sets up a pretty decent 2020, not coincidentally ahead of National Elections (though yes it's absolutely contingent on how many things work out).

Not the least of which relates to geopolitics, and not just with China. The Oil slump could become an oil pump overnight if Iran dispenses minor nicks at the West with more overt actions; hence triggering the worst confrontation imaginable (war in the Middle East and in the scorching heat of Summer). 

'Control' is what this Summer is about. Who has it and what do they do with it. That relates to everything from 'trade', to 'monetary policy', to unintended consequences of 'aggressive mercantilism' to 'military confrontation', to US politics. So whether it's China, Fed nominees, new leadership coming to the ECB, China's interdiction (or threats against freedom of navigation) in the Malacca Straits, or domestic challenges to the President, overshadowed by the focus on China and North Korea most recently; it's all rather pensive.  

In sum: it's a 'Summer of Deals'. Every one of the foregoing involves 'deals' or dealing behind the scenes in some cases, to resolve the status-quo and move forward if possible, without ruffling feathers to the point of well.. those feathers being plucked, resulting in undesired 'fireworks'.  

 

So we celebrate our Independence; as freedom from a lot of things is what the 4th of July is about; not merely the separation from Britain back then.  

Bottom line: Have a great holiday and expect stocks to advance a bit more even if the jobs number is mediocre. That will merely encourage belief that a Fed rate cut is coming; whether it's counterproductive or not. 

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