It’s time for a quick market update on Crude oil as I am kind of baffled about the acceleration of time since my last post. Without any fancy introduction into this article, we will go straight to the charts… However, before doing this keep in mind the geopolitical situation with the international fabricated issues which can turn around the best technical analysis in a second. Anyway, starting off with the daily plain perspective, we can identify Friday as an inside day. Friday’s high and low already got taken out as the market accepting the current distribution (balance) extremes. Looking at the whole formation, I am pretty bearish for the next days, technically speaking. Also, to be noted is the fact, that the following chart figure is volume based back adjusted.

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Moving forward to the weekly volume profiles on an hourly chart, I’ve marked a sell area in the higher extreme which played out well without me on board in the morning. The market opened inside of the upper balanced distribution and I thought it could test both extremes. I will play the balanced game until the market breaks out of this acceptance area. In the hindsight, a long trade from the lower extreme which was confluent with the low volume area made sense but was not confluent with any VWAP level. Next thing to mention is the P-shaped profile scenario. Actually, we broke the weekly VPOC which turns it into a possible great level to short the market in my opinion as it is confluent with a VAH close level from the VWAP chart.

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EDIT September 19: The volume profile seems wrong. The information about the P-shaped scenario is irrelevant in this case as we have multiple distribution profiles. The information about the current acceptance area is correct. Here the updated profiles:

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Now then, looking at the VWAP chart, we can see the two marked balance extremes and the mentioned weekly VPOC level. Conclude for yourself with a glance on this pretty figure:

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To make this whole article more colorful and enjoyable, let’s add some data to it. Money Managers were closing positions on both sides with a look at the last COT Report. If you don’t know how to read the report, here an article about how to read the COT report for you.

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Watching the whole thing with the QuickStrike tool on CME’s website, we can observe a decrease of the net position in the managed money sector, Options and Futures combined. Can’t conclude anything about this data but it seems they reduce risk exposure. Well, it’s professionally the best term to describe this in some way.

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Also, let’s take the time to glare on the inventory chart. At the lowest levels of this year currently but in the upper half of the average range for this time of year.

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That’s it for now. Funny, how I speed up everything in the end of a post. Well, the most important details were mentioned in the beginning. Have a great week!