The March natural gas contract shot over 4% higher on the day today as cash prices traded over $2.85 and afternoon model guidance trended even colder for the first third of March. 

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The role of cash and the March options expiry was apparent in how much more the March contract ran out relative to the rest of the futures strip. 

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The result was a flip positive in the March/April H/J spread. 

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Our Morning Update highlighted a significant cold trend over the weekend that let prices gap up last evening. 

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Afternoon model guidance trended even colder in the medium-range too, helping prices run up into the settle (images courtesy of Tropical Tidbits). 

This verified well, as prices shot higher today. Part of this has been due to continued tight balances, with LNG exports at record levels playing a role. 

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