March 2019 Initial Unemployment Claims Rolling Average Marginally Worsens

Market expectations for weekly initial unemployment claims (from Econoday) were 212 K to 225 K (consensus 225,000), and the Department of Labor reported 221,000 new claims. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 224,000 (reported last week as 223,750) to 225,000. The rolling averages generally have been equal to or under 300,000 since August 2014.

Analyst Opinion of Initial Unemployment Claims

This marks 206 consecutive weeks of initial claims below 300,000, the longest streak since 1970. The general trend of the 4-week rolling average is a slowing rate of improvement year-over-year which history suggests a slowing economy. The unemployment rate is currently worse than one year ago.

It should be pointed out that Econintersect watches the year-over-year change on the 4 week moving average. There is always some seasonality which migrates into the seasonally adjusted data, and year-over-year comparisons help remove some seasonality. The four week rolling average of initial claims are 0.8 % higher (better than the 1.0 % higher for last week) than they were in this same week a year ago.

 

Claim levels are at 40 year lows (with the normal range around 350,000 weekly initial unemployment claims of levels seen historically during times of economic expansion - see chart below).

 

From the Department of Labor:

In the week ending March 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 221,000, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 229,000 to 230,000. The 4-week moving average was 225,000, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 223,750 to 224,000.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.2 percent for the week ending March 9, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending March 9 was 1,750,000, a decrease of 27,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up 1,000 from 1,776,000 to 1,777,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,772,500, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 1,766,250 to 1,766,500.

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