Year-over-year import prices and export prices grew insignificantly.

Analyst Opinion of the Import / Export Price Situation

The month-over-month price index for fuel imports increased (and non-fuel imports contracted) - and the price index for agricultural exports decreased.

Import Oil prices were up 7.3 % month-over-month, and export agricultural prices were down 2.3 %.

• with import prices unchanged year-over-year;
• and export prices up 0.6 % year-over-year.
• the markets were expecting (from Econoday):

There is only a marginal correlation between economic activity, recessions, and export/import prices. Prices can be rising or falling going into a recession or entering a period of expansion. Econintersect follows this data series to adjust economic activity for the effects of inflation where there are clear relationships.

Econintersect follows this series to adjust data for inflation.

Year-over-Year Change - Import Prices (blue line) and Export Prices (red line)

There are three cases of deflation outside of a recession - early 1990′s, late 1990′s, and mid 2000′s. Import price deflation is normally associated with the strengthening of the dollar relative to other currencies.

According to the press release:

All Imports: Prices for U.S. imports advanced 0.6 percent in March and 1.7 percent in the first 3 months of 2019. The increase for the 3 months ended in March was the largest 3-month rise since the index advanced 1.9 percent between October 2017 and January 2018. The import price index recorded no change over the past 12 months. (See table 1.) Fuel Imports: Import fuel prices rose 6.4 percent in March after increasing 9.7 percent in February and 4.4 percent in January. Petroleum prices rose 4.7 percent in March, continuing the trend of the previous 2 months, and natural gas prices rose 42.3 percent following a 12.9-percent increase in February. Fuel prices rose 7.3 percent over the past 12 months. The price index for petroleum increased 3.9 percent for the year ended in March, and prices for natural gas rose 91.3 percent over the same period. The 12-month increase in natural gas prices was the largest advance since the index rose 99.9 percent in March 2014.

All Exports: The price index for U.S. exports advanced 0.7 percent in March, after increasing 0.7 percent the previous month. Those increases followed 0.6-percent declines in January and December. Prices for nonagricultural and agricultural exports each contributed to the overall advance in March. U.S. export prices rose 0.6 percent over the past 12 months. (See table 2.) Agricultural Exports: The price index for agricultural exports increased 0.9 percent in March following a 0.2-percent advance in February. The rise in March was led by a 34.9-percent increase in vegetable prices. Rising prices for dairy products and eggs also contributed to the March advance. In contrast, wheat, soybean, and corn prices declined in March. Despite the recent increases, agricultural export prices fell 2.3 percent over the past year. The decrease was driven by a 15.5-percent drop in soybean prices from March 2018 to March 2019.

Month-over-Month Change - Import Prices (blue line) and Export Prices (red line)

The biggest mover of import and export prices are usually oil (imports) and agricultural products (exports).

Oil Import Price Change Month-over-Month (blue line) and Agriculture Export Change Month-over-Month (red line)

Caveats on the Use of the Export/Import Price Index

Both import and export prices index values shown in this post is a weighted average for the entire category of exports or imports. The BLS has many sub-categories relating to a particular commodity or goods. Econintersect using spot checks believes these subindexes are accurate.