The employment numbers came in progressively better throughout the week. Friday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the US added 216,000 jobs in December. The following industries reported the largest gains:

• Leisure and Hospitality (Hotels, Restaurants, Gambling, Live Entertainment) — 40,000
• Health Care — 38,000
• Local Governments — 37,000
• Professional and Business Services (Accounting, Architecture, Computers, Consulting) — 25,000
• Retail Trade — 17,000
• Construction — 17,000
• Education — 15,000
• Information (Motion Picture Industry post writer’s strike, Data Processing) — 14,000

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The trucking industry can be a good sector to look at for possible signs of slowing economic activity. This series was in decline but hit a hard, abrupt bottom in August. This indicates the issues were not demand related but supply related. The bottom in declining employment in the trucking industry coincides with new contracts that were inked at the end of July.

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Employment services and especially temp employment services can be a good area too look for early signs of slowing or declining employment coinciding with slowing and even declining growth. There is the argument that this time is different because of the surge in need for temp work in 2021 coming out of the pandemic. Perhaps the need for temp workers has just been replaced with demand for permanent workers. Regardless, I think worth noting that these series have been negative for the whole of 2023.

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