Lingering Warmth Takes A Bite Out Of Gas

Selling was widespread at the front of the natural gas strip, as continued warmer forecasts for December sent the January futures contract 3% lower. 

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natural gas commodity weather

It was the January contract that led the whole winter strip lower today, with Spring and Summer 2019 again catching a bit of a bid. 

natural gas commodity weather

We first picked up on these bearish weather trends in the morning, with a forecast that showed another round of GWDD losses overnight. 

natural gas commodity weather

This came as European model guidance remained warm. This morning it were appearing decently less bullish than they were yesterday while 12z model guidance was still unlikely to increase bullish risks, which played out well. 

natural gas commodity weather

Climate Prediction Center predictions showed this well by maintaining most warm risks through Week 2, even as some models show early indications of a pattern transition colder. 

natural gas commodity weather

Yesterday we outlined what effect the reported DTI/TCO withdrawal may be having on natural gas price risk and what it implied about Thursday's EIA print. 

natural gas commodity weather

Meanwhile, while we were looking at the latest weather-driven demand expectations through April, we outlined various opportunities we saw along the natural gas futures curve. Here we saw the role that very elevated GWDDs through 2018 has had on price. 

natural gas commodity weather

 

natural gas commodity weather

 

Disclaimer: To begin receiving both our technical and fundamental analysis of the natural gas market on a daily basis, and view our various models breaking down weather by natural gas demand ...

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