Large Cap Report: Best And Worst

Our top scoring large cap stocks from 1 year ago have produced an average 297 bps of excess return to the S&P 500 over the past year. Among our best scoring picks from a year ago (5/7/2013) are SWY up 62%, MGA up 61%, NOC up 60%, MCK up 55%, and WFT up 54%. 

  • Utilities score best across large cap.
  • The best large cap industry is major oil & gas

The average score across our large cap universe is 58.95 this week, above the four week moving average score of 57.29. The average large cap is trading -10.45% below its 52 week high, 2.67% above its 200 dma, has 3.7 days to cover short, and is expected to post EPS growth of 13.58% next year.
Utilities, industrial goods, and healthcare are the strongest large cap sectors. Basic materials also score above average. Consumer goods, financials, technology, and services score below average.


 

LG CAP       5/8/2014 4 Week MA
Company Name Symbol Sector INDUSTRY SCORE SCORE
BEST          
Sigma Aldrich SIAL HEALTHCARE SPECIALTY CHEMICALS 110 90
Amphenol Corp APH TECHNOLOGY DIVERSIFIED ELECTRONICS 105 102.5
Eqt Corp EQT UTILITIES GAS UTILITIES 105 105
Avalonbay Comm. AVB FINANCIALS REITS 100 98.75
Burger King BKW SERVICES RESTAURANTS 100 102.5
Energizer Hldgs Inc ENR INDUSTRIAL GOODS INDUSTRIAL ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT 100 78.75
Edwards Lifesciences EW HEALTHCARE MEDICAL APPLIANCES & EQUIPMENT 100 98.75
General Dynamics GD INDUSTRIAL GOODS AEROSPACE/DEFENSE  PRODUCTS & SERVICES 100 97.5
Idexx Lab IDXX HEALTHCARE DIAGNOSTIC SUBSTANCES 100 92.5
Illumina ILMN HEALTHCARE BIOTECHNOLOGY 100 91.25
Johnson & Johnson JNJ HEALTHCARE DRUG MANUFACTURERS 100 97.5
Lorillard Inc LO CONSUMER GOODS CIGARETTES 100 95
Lam Research Corp LRCX TECHNOLOGY SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT & MATERIALS 100 85
Merck MRK HEALTHCARE DRUG MANUFACTURERS 100 98.75
Nextera Energy NEE UTILITIES ELECTRIC UTILITIES 100 100
Alexion Pharma ALXN HEALTHCARE DRUG MANUFACTURERS 95 87.5
Autonation AN SERVICES AUTO DEALERSHIPS 95 85
Brown Forman Corp BF.B CONSUMER GOODS BEVERAGES 95 92.5
B P plc BP BASIC MATERIALS MAJOR INTEGRATED OIL AND GAS 95 75
Chesapeake Energy CHK BASIC MATERIALS INDEPENDENT OIL & GAS 95 92.5
Cummins Inc CMI INDUSTRIAL GOODS DIVERSIFIED MACHINERY 95 86.25
Cabot Oil & Gas Corp COG BASIC MATERIALS INDEPENDENT OIL & GAS 95 78.75
Camden Ppty CPT FINANCIALS REITS 95 93.75
C V S Corp CVS SERVICES DRUG STORES 95 92.5
Walt Disney Company DIS SERVICES ENTERTAINMENT- DIVERSIFIED 95 86.25
Dover Corp DOV INDUSTRIAL GOODS DIVERSIFIED MACHINERY 95 92.5
The Directv Group Inc DTV TECHNOLOGY COMMUNICATION EQUIPMENT 95 93.75
EnCana Corp ECA BASIC MATERIALS INDEPENDENT OIL & GAS 95 96.25
Edison Intl EIX UTILITIES ELECTRIC UTILITIES 95 98.75
Eastman Chemical Co EMN BASIC MATERIALS CHEMICALS- MAJOR DIVERSIFIED 95 87.5
E O G Resources EOG BASIC MATERIALS INDEPENDENT OIL & GAS 95 93.75
Essex Ppty Trust ESS FINANCIALS REITS 95 91.25
Entergy Corp New ETR UTILITIES ELECTRIC UTILITIES 95 95
Fidelity Nat'l Info Svcs FIS SERVICES BUSINESS SERVICES 95 73.75
Green Mtn. Coffee Roasters GMCR CONSUMER GOODS PROCESSED & PACKAGED GOODS 95 92.5
Halliburton HAL BASIC MATERIALS OIL & GAS EQUIPMENT & SERVICES 95 93.75
Kellogg Company K CONSUMER GOODS PROCESSED & PACKAGED GOODS 95 102.5
L3 Communications LLL SERVICES SECURITY & PROTECTION SERVICES 95 92.5
Eli Lilly LLY HEALTHCARE DRUG MANUFACTURERS 95 95
Mdu Res Group Inc MDU INDUSTRIAL GOODS GENERAL BUILDING MATERIALS 95 93.75
Northrup Grumman NOC INDUSTRIAL GOODS AEROSPACE/DEFENSE  PRODUCTS & SERVICES 95 80
O'Reilly Auto ORLY SERVICES AUTO PARTS STORES 95 97.5
Reynolds American RAI CONSUMER GOODS CIGARETTES 95 95
S L Green SLG FINANCIALS REITS 95 93.75
Snap On Inc SNA INDUSTRIAL GOODS SMALL TOOLS & ACCESSORIES 95 86.25
Constellation Brands STZ CONSUMER GOODS BEVERAGES 95 92.5
Transdigm Group Inc. TDG INDUSTRIAL GOODS AEROSPACE/DEFENSE  PRODUCTS & SERVICES 95 92.5
Time Warner Cable Inc TWC SERVICES CATV SYSTEMS 95 81.25
Valeant Pharma VRX HEALTHCARE DRUG MANUFACTURERS 95 81.25
Wisconsin Energy WEC UTILITIES DIVERSIFIED UTILITIES 95 98.75
Weatherfold International Inc WFT BASIC MATERIALS OIL & GAS EQUIPMENT & SERVICES 95 95
Autozone AZO SERVICES AUTO PARTS STORES 90 92.5
Continental Resources CLR BASIC MATERIALS OIL & GAS DRILLING & EXPLORATION 90 88.75
DaVita Inc DVA HEALTHCARE SPECIALIZED HEALTH SERVICES 90 92.5
Equity Residential EQR FINANCIALS REITS 90 87.5
Gilead GILD HEALTHCARE BIOTECHNOLOGY 90 71.25
Mead Johnson Nutrition MJN CONSUMER GOODS PROCESSED & PACKAGED GOODS 90 76.25
P P L Corp PPL UTILITIES ELECTRIC UTILITIES 90 92.5
Quanta Svcs Inc PWR INDUSTRIAL GOODS GENERAL CONTRACTORS 90 91.25
Scana Corp New SCG UTILITIES DIVERSIFIED UTILITIES 90 93.75
Salix Pharm SLXP HEALTHCARE DRUGS-GENERIC 90 88.75
Tyson Foods TSN CONSUMER GOODS MEAT PRODUCTS 90 92.5
Wells Fargo WFC FINANCIALS MONEY CENTER BANKS 90 87.5
Xcel Energy Inc XEL UTILITIES ELECTRIC UTILITIES 90 93.75
           
WORST          
Bed Bath & Beyond BBBY SERVICES HOME FURNISHING & FIXTURES 15 15
Bunge BG CONSUMER GOODS FARM PRODUCTS 15 25
A S M L Holding ASML TECHNOLOGY   20 18.75
Fireeye Inc FEYE TECHNOLOGY APPLICATION SOFTWARE 20 17.5
Gerdau SA GGB BASIC MATERIALS STEEL & IRON 20 21.25
Leucadia Nat'l LUK CONGLOMERATES CONGLOMERATES 20 17.5
Mattel Inc MAT CONSUMER GOODS TOYS & GAMES 20 17.5
Nomura Holdings NMR FINANCIALS INVESTMENT BROKERAGE 20 17.5
New York Community NYCB FINANCIALS SAVINGS & LOANS 20 30
Rackspace Hosting Inc. RAX TECHNOLOGY INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY SERVICES 20 20
Rackspace Hosting Inc. RAX TECHNOLOGY INTERNET SOFTWARE & SERVICES 20 21.25
Red Hat Inc RHT TECHNOLOGY APPLICATION SOFTWARE 20 22.5


The best scoring large cap industry is major oil & gas (BP, COP, XOM). We are in the midst of the strongest period of the year for performance for energy related stocks. Historically, strength in May has proven a great opportunity to normalize weights ahead of weaker returns in the third quarter. Aerospace/defense (GD, TDG, NOC) is strong and benefits ahead of summer air show orders. Typically, suppliers offer opportunity as orders and backlogs support OEM production upside. Drug stores (CVS, RAD, OCR) continue to expand healthcare services to drive foot traffic, script growth, and front end sales. The re-exertion of the patent cliff offers margin friendly bottom line support through 2015. Vacancy rates continue to provide upside to effective rents (AVB, SLG, ESS, CPT, EQR). Construction spending grew 8.3% year-over-year in the first quarter. March construction spending was up 8.4% from a year ago. Lodging, office, and commercial all posted solid year-over-year growth, climbing 29.6%, 10.9%, and 7.4%, respectively.  Electric utilities (NEE, ETR, EIX, XEL) enjoy positive seasonal tailwinds through the shoulder months. Rising natural gas supports spot prices. Major chemicals (EMN, SHW, ASH) round out the top scoring large cap industries this week.



In large cap basics, buy major oil & gas, major chemicals, and pipelines (SE, WMB). Independent oil & gas (EOG, ECA, COG, CHK) also scores highly. In consumer goods, focus on cigarettes (LO, RAI), auto parts (TRW, MGA, ALV), and processed & packaged goods (K, GMCR, MJN). The top financials baskets include REITs, credit services (SLM, AXP), and P&C insurers (WRB, TRV, PRE). P&C insurers tend to provide upside through hurricane season.  In healthcare, buy drug makers (MRK, JNJ, VRX, LLY, ALXN), medical appliances (EW, ZMH, RMD), and healthcare plans (HUM, WLP). Medicaid enrollment supports private Medicaid insurers as 3 million new enrollees help drive revenue higher at both diversified and niche insurers. Every industrials group scores above average this week, led by aerospace/defense, diversified machinery (DOV, CMI, ITW), and industrial equipment (PNR, PH). In services, focus on drug stores, rails (UNP, CSX), and diversified entertainment (DIS, TWX). The top technology industries are diversified communication services (AMT, LVLT), domestic telecom (CTL, T), and semi ICs (MRVL, TSM, SWKS). Electric, diversified (WEC, SCG, PEG), and foreign utilities (ENI) all score above average.

LG CAP INDUSTRY SCORE BY SECTOR   5/8/2014
Sector Industry SCORE
     
BASIC MATERIALS MAJOR INTEGRATED OIL AND GAS 78.75
BASIC MATERIALS CHEMICALS- MAJOR DIVERSIFIED 76.67
BASIC MATERIALS OIL & GAS PIPELINES 75.00
BASIC MATERIALS INDEPENDENT OIL & GAS 72.35
BASIC MATERIALS OIL & GAS EQUIPMENT & SERVICES 68.18
BASIC MATERIALS INDUSTRIAL METALS & MINERALS 67.50
BASIC MATERIALS OIL & GAS DRILLING & EXPLORATION 60.00
BASIC MATERIALS AGRICULTURAL CHEMICALS 53.00
BASIC MATERIALS OIL & GAS REFINING & MARKETING 52.50
BASIC MATERIALS GOLD 48.33
BASIC MATERIALS STEEL & IRON 36.43
CONSUMER GOODS CIGARETTES 75.00
CONSUMER GOODS AUTO PARTS 73.33
CONSUMER GOODS PROCESSED & PACKAGED GOODS 68.75
CONSUMER GOODS BEVERAGES 68.33
CONSUMER GOODS TEXTILES 54.44
CONSUMER GOODS AUTO MANUFACTURERS- MAJOR 45.00
CONSUMER GOODS FOOD - MAJOR DIVERSIFIED 42.50
CONSUMER GOODS PERSONAL PRODUCTS 42.00
FINANCIALS REITS 76.90
FINANCIALS CREDIT SERVICES 58.13
FINANCIALS PROPERTY & CASUALITY INSURANCE 58.13
FINANCIALS MONEY CENTER BANKS 55.00
FINANCIALS LIFE INSURANCE 54.17
FINANCIALS FOREIGN MONEY CENTER BANKS 51.00
FINANCIALS REGIONAL BANKS 46.00
FINANCIALS ASSET MANAGEMENT 45.00
FINANCIALS INSURANCE BROKERS 43.75
FINANCIALS INVESTMENT BROKERAGE 36.25
FINANCIALS SAVINGS & LOANS 32.50
HEALTHCARE DRUG MANUFACTURERS 69.57
HEALTHCARE MEDICAL APPLIANCES & EQUIPMENT 61.88
HEALTHCARE HEALTH CARE PLANS 59.00
HEALTHCARE BIOTECHNOLOGY 55.00
HEALTHCARE MEDICAL INSTRUMENTS & SUPPLIES 50.00
INDUSTRIAL GOODS AEROSPACE/DEFENSE  PRODUCTS & SERVICES 78.00
INDUSTRIAL GOODS DIVERSIFIED MACHINERY 66.43
INDUSTRIAL GOODS INDUSTRIAL EQUIPMENT & COMPONENTS 56.25
INDUSTRIAL GOODS FARM & CONSTRUCTION MACHINERY 53.00
SERVICES DRUG STORES 77.50
SERVICES RAILROADS 64.00
SERVICES ENTERTAINMENT- DIVERSIFIED 62.50
SERVICES GROCERY STORES 61.67
SERVICES LODGING 60.00
SERVICES CATV SYSTEMS 59.29
SERVICES BUSINESS SERVICES 59.00
SERVICES RESORTS AND CASINOS 58.33
SERVICES RESTAURANTS 58.00
SERVICES DEPARTMENT STORES 53.33
SERVICES AIR DELIVERY & FREIGHT SERVICES 52.50
SERVICES DISCOUNT, VARIETY STORES 50.00
SERVICES APPAREL STORES 48.57
SERVICES DRUGS WHOLESALE 48.33
TECHNOLOGY DIVERSIFIED COMMUNICATION SERVICES 70.00
TECHNOLOGY TELECOM SERVICES - DOMESTIC 70.00
TECHNOLOGY SEMICONDUCTOR- INTEGRATED CIRCUITS 68.75
TECHNOLOGY COMMUNICATION EQUIPMENT 65.83
TECHNOLOGY INTERNET INFORMATION PROVIDER 62.50
TECHNOLOGY BUSINESS SOFTWARE & SERVICES 60.00
TECHNOLOGY SEMICONDUCTOR-SPECIALIZED 60.00
TECHNOLOGY SCIENTIFIC & TECHNICAL INSTRUMENTS 58.75
TECHNOLOGY DIVERSIFIED COMPUTER SYSTEMS 58.33
TECHNOLOGY SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT & MATERIALS 56.00
TECHNOLOGY INTERNET SOFTWARE & SERVICES 50.50
TECHNOLOGY TECHINICAL & SYSTEM SOFTWARE 49.17
TECHNOLOGY SEMICONDUCTOR- BROAD LINE 48.75
TECHNOLOGY WIRELESS COMMUNICATIONS 47.50
TECHNOLOGY APPLICATION SOFTWARE 46.00
TECHNOLOGY DATA STORAGE DEVICES 43.75
UTILITIES ELECTRIC UTILITIES 76.79
UTILITIES DIVERSIFIED UTILITIES 71.50
UTILITIES FOREIGN UTILITIES 55.00

 

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