Large Cap Report: Best And Worst
Our top scoring large cap stocks from 1 year ago have produced an average 297 bps of excess return to the S&P 500 over the past year. Among our best scoring picks from a year ago (5/7/2013) are SWY up 62%, MGA up 61%, NOC up 60%, MCK up 55%, and WFT up 54%.
- Utilities score best across large cap.
- The best large cap industry is major oil & gas
The average score across our large cap universe is 58.95 this week, above the four week moving average score of 57.29. The average large cap is trading -10.45% below its 52 week high, 2.67% above its 200 dma, has 3.7 days to cover short, and is expected to post EPS growth of 13.58% next year.
Utilities, industrial goods, and healthcare are the strongest large cap sectors. Basic materials also score above average. Consumer goods, financials, technology, and services score below average.
LG CAP | 5/8/2014 | 4 Week MA | |||
Company Name | Symbol | Sector | INDUSTRY | SCORE | SCORE |
BEST | |||||
Sigma Aldrich | SIAL | HEALTHCARE | SPECIALTY CHEMICALS | 110 | 90 |
Amphenol Corp | APH | TECHNOLOGY | DIVERSIFIED ELECTRONICS | 105 | 102.5 |
Eqt Corp | EQT | UTILITIES | GAS UTILITIES | 105 | 105 |
Avalonbay Comm. | AVB | FINANCIALS | REITS | 100 | 98.75 |
Burger King | BKW | SERVICES | RESTAURANTS | 100 | 102.5 |
Energizer Hldgs Inc | ENR | INDUSTRIAL GOODS | INDUSTRIAL ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT | 100 | 78.75 |
Edwards Lifesciences | EW | HEALTHCARE | MEDICAL APPLIANCES & EQUIPMENT | 100 | 98.75 |
General Dynamics | GD | INDUSTRIAL GOODS | AEROSPACE/DEFENSE PRODUCTS & SERVICES | 100 | 97.5 |
Idexx Lab | IDXX | HEALTHCARE | DIAGNOSTIC SUBSTANCES | 100 | 92.5 |
Illumina | ILMN | HEALTHCARE | BIOTECHNOLOGY | 100 | 91.25 |
Johnson & Johnson | JNJ | HEALTHCARE | DRUG MANUFACTURERS | 100 | 97.5 |
Lorillard Inc | LO | CONSUMER GOODS | CIGARETTES | 100 | 95 |
Lam Research Corp | LRCX | TECHNOLOGY | SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT & MATERIALS | 100 | 85 |
Merck | MRK | HEALTHCARE | DRUG MANUFACTURERS | 100 | 98.75 |
Nextera Energy | NEE | UTILITIES | ELECTRIC UTILITIES | 100 | 100 |
Alexion Pharma | ALXN | HEALTHCARE | DRUG MANUFACTURERS | 95 | 87.5 |
Autonation | AN | SERVICES | AUTO DEALERSHIPS | 95 | 85 |
Brown Forman Corp | BF.B | CONSUMER GOODS | BEVERAGES | 95 | 92.5 |
B P plc | BP | BASIC MATERIALS | MAJOR INTEGRATED OIL AND GAS | 95 | 75 |
Chesapeake Energy | CHK | BASIC MATERIALS | INDEPENDENT OIL & GAS | 95 | 92.5 |
Cummins Inc | CMI | INDUSTRIAL GOODS | DIVERSIFIED MACHINERY | 95 | 86.25 |
Cabot Oil & Gas Corp | COG | BASIC MATERIALS | INDEPENDENT OIL & GAS | 95 | 78.75 |
Camden Ppty | CPT | FINANCIALS | REITS | 95 | 93.75 |
C V S Corp | CVS | SERVICES | DRUG STORES | 95 | 92.5 |
Walt Disney Company | DIS | SERVICES | ENTERTAINMENT- DIVERSIFIED | 95 | 86.25 |
Dover Corp | DOV | INDUSTRIAL GOODS | DIVERSIFIED MACHINERY | 95 | 92.5 |
The Directv Group Inc | DTV | TECHNOLOGY | COMMUNICATION EQUIPMENT | 95 | 93.75 |
EnCana Corp | ECA | BASIC MATERIALS | INDEPENDENT OIL & GAS | 95 | 96.25 |
Edison Intl | EIX | UTILITIES | ELECTRIC UTILITIES | 95 | 98.75 |
Eastman Chemical Co | EMN | BASIC MATERIALS | CHEMICALS- MAJOR DIVERSIFIED | 95 | 87.5 |
E O G Resources | EOG | BASIC MATERIALS | INDEPENDENT OIL & GAS | 95 | 93.75 |
Essex Ppty Trust | ESS | FINANCIALS | REITS | 95 | 91.25 |
Entergy Corp New | ETR | UTILITIES | ELECTRIC UTILITIES | 95 | 95 |
Fidelity Nat'l Info Svcs | FIS | SERVICES | BUSINESS SERVICES | 95 | 73.75 |
Green Mtn. Coffee Roasters | GMCR | CONSUMER GOODS | PROCESSED & PACKAGED GOODS | 95 | 92.5 |
Halliburton | HAL | BASIC MATERIALS | OIL & GAS EQUIPMENT & SERVICES | 95 | 93.75 |
Kellogg Company | K | CONSUMER GOODS | PROCESSED & PACKAGED GOODS | 95 | 102.5 |
L3 Communications | LLL | SERVICES | SECURITY & PROTECTION SERVICES | 95 | 92.5 |
Eli Lilly | LLY | HEALTHCARE | DRUG MANUFACTURERS | 95 | 95 |
Mdu Res Group Inc | MDU | INDUSTRIAL GOODS | GENERAL BUILDING MATERIALS | 95 | 93.75 |
Northrup Grumman | NOC | INDUSTRIAL GOODS | AEROSPACE/DEFENSE PRODUCTS & SERVICES | 95 | 80 |
O'Reilly Auto | ORLY | SERVICES | AUTO PARTS STORES | 95 | 97.5 |
Reynolds American | RAI | CONSUMER GOODS | CIGARETTES | 95 | 95 |
S L Green | SLG | FINANCIALS | REITS | 95 | 93.75 |
Snap On Inc | SNA | INDUSTRIAL GOODS | SMALL TOOLS & ACCESSORIES | 95 | 86.25 |
Constellation Brands | STZ | CONSUMER GOODS | BEVERAGES | 95 | 92.5 |
Transdigm Group Inc. | TDG | INDUSTRIAL GOODS | AEROSPACE/DEFENSE PRODUCTS & SERVICES | 95 | 92.5 |
Time Warner Cable Inc | TWC | SERVICES | CATV SYSTEMS | 95 | 81.25 |
Valeant Pharma | VRX | HEALTHCARE | DRUG MANUFACTURERS | 95 | 81.25 |
Wisconsin Energy | WEC | UTILITIES | DIVERSIFIED UTILITIES | 95 | 98.75 |
Weatherfold International Inc | WFT | BASIC MATERIALS | OIL & GAS EQUIPMENT & SERVICES | 95 | 95 |
Autozone | AZO | SERVICES | AUTO PARTS STORES | 90 | 92.5 |
Continental Resources | CLR | BASIC MATERIALS | OIL & GAS DRILLING & EXPLORATION | 90 | 88.75 |
DaVita Inc | DVA | HEALTHCARE | SPECIALIZED HEALTH SERVICES | 90 | 92.5 |
Equity Residential | EQR | FINANCIALS | REITS | 90 | 87.5 |
Gilead | GILD | HEALTHCARE | BIOTECHNOLOGY | 90 | 71.25 |
Mead Johnson Nutrition | MJN | CONSUMER GOODS | PROCESSED & PACKAGED GOODS | 90 | 76.25 |
P P L Corp | PPL | UTILITIES | ELECTRIC UTILITIES | 90 | 92.5 |
Quanta Svcs Inc | PWR | INDUSTRIAL GOODS | GENERAL CONTRACTORS | 90 | 91.25 |
Scana Corp New | SCG | UTILITIES | DIVERSIFIED UTILITIES | 90 | 93.75 |
Salix Pharm | SLXP | HEALTHCARE | DRUGS-GENERIC | 90 | 88.75 |
Tyson Foods | TSN | CONSUMER GOODS | MEAT PRODUCTS | 90 | 92.5 |
Wells Fargo | WFC | FINANCIALS | MONEY CENTER BANKS | 90 | 87.5 |
Xcel Energy Inc | XEL | UTILITIES | ELECTRIC UTILITIES | 90 | 93.75 |
WORST | |||||
Bed Bath & Beyond | BBBY | SERVICES | HOME FURNISHING & FIXTURES | 15 | 15 |
Bunge | BG | CONSUMER GOODS | FARM PRODUCTS | 15 | 25 |
A S M L Holding | ASML | TECHNOLOGY | 20 | 18.75 | |
Fireeye Inc | FEYE | TECHNOLOGY | APPLICATION SOFTWARE | 20 | 17.5 |
Gerdau SA | GGB | BASIC MATERIALS | STEEL & IRON | 20 | 21.25 |
Leucadia Nat'l | LUK | CONGLOMERATES | CONGLOMERATES | 20 | 17.5 |
Mattel Inc | MAT | CONSUMER GOODS | TOYS & GAMES | 20 | 17.5 |
Nomura Holdings | NMR | FINANCIALS | INVESTMENT BROKERAGE | 20 | 17.5 |
New York Community | NYCB | FINANCIALS | SAVINGS & LOANS | 20 | 30 |
Rackspace Hosting Inc. | RAX | TECHNOLOGY | INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY SERVICES | 20 | 20 |
Rackspace Hosting Inc. | RAX | TECHNOLOGY | INTERNET SOFTWARE & SERVICES | 20 | 21.25 |
Red Hat Inc | RHT | TECHNOLOGY | APPLICATION SOFTWARE | 20 | 22.5 |
The best scoring large cap industry is major oil & gas (BP, COP, XOM). We are in the midst of the strongest period of the year for performance for energy related stocks. Historically, strength in May has proven a great opportunity to normalize weights ahead of weaker returns in the third quarter. Aerospace/defense (GD, TDG, NOC) is strong and benefits ahead of summer air show orders. Typically, suppliers offer opportunity as orders and backlogs support OEM production upside. Drug stores (CVS, RAD, OCR) continue to expand healthcare services to drive foot traffic, script growth, and front end sales. The re-exertion of the patent cliff offers margin friendly bottom line support through 2015. Vacancy rates continue to provide upside to effective rents (AVB, SLG, ESS, CPT, EQR). Construction spending grew 8.3% year-over-year in the first quarter. March construction spending was up 8.4% from a year ago. Lodging, office, and commercial all posted solid year-over-year growth, climbing 29.6%, 10.9%, and 7.4%, respectively. Electric utilities (NEE, ETR, EIX, XEL) enjoy positive seasonal tailwinds through the shoulder months. Rising natural gas supports spot prices. Major chemicals (EMN, SHW, ASH) round out the top scoring large cap industries this week.
In large cap basics, buy major oil & gas, major chemicals, and pipelines (SE, WMB). Independent oil & gas (EOG, ECA, COG, CHK) also scores highly. In consumer goods, focus on cigarettes (LO, RAI), auto parts (TRW, MGA, ALV), and processed & packaged goods (K, GMCR, MJN). The top financials baskets include REITs, credit services (SLM, AXP), and P&C insurers (WRB, TRV, PRE). P&C insurers tend to provide upside through hurricane season. In healthcare, buy drug makers (MRK, JNJ, VRX, LLY, ALXN), medical appliances (EW, ZMH, RMD), and healthcare plans (HUM, WLP). Medicaid enrollment supports private Medicaid insurers as 3 million new enrollees help drive revenue higher at both diversified and niche insurers. Every industrials group scores above average this week, led by aerospace/defense, diversified machinery (DOV, CMI, ITW), and industrial equipment (PNR, PH). In services, focus on drug stores, rails (UNP, CSX), and diversified entertainment (DIS, TWX). The top technology industries are diversified communication services (AMT, LVLT), domestic telecom (CTL, T), and semi ICs (MRVL, TSM, SWKS). Electric, diversified (WEC, SCG, PEG), and foreign utilities (ENI) all score above average.
LG CAP INDUSTRY SCORE BY SECTOR | 5/8/2014 | |
Sector | Industry | SCORE |
BASIC MATERIALS | MAJOR INTEGRATED OIL AND GAS | 78.75 |
BASIC MATERIALS | CHEMICALS- MAJOR DIVERSIFIED | 76.67 |
BASIC MATERIALS | OIL & GAS PIPELINES | 75.00 |
BASIC MATERIALS | INDEPENDENT OIL & GAS | 72.35 |
BASIC MATERIALS | OIL & GAS EQUIPMENT & SERVICES | 68.18 |
BASIC MATERIALS | INDUSTRIAL METALS & MINERALS | 67.50 |
BASIC MATERIALS | OIL & GAS DRILLING & EXPLORATION | 60.00 |
BASIC MATERIALS | AGRICULTURAL CHEMICALS | 53.00 |
BASIC MATERIALS | OIL & GAS REFINING & MARKETING | 52.50 |
BASIC MATERIALS | GOLD | 48.33 |
BASIC MATERIALS | STEEL & IRON | 36.43 |
CONSUMER GOODS | CIGARETTES | 75.00 |
CONSUMER GOODS | AUTO PARTS | 73.33 |
CONSUMER GOODS | PROCESSED & PACKAGED GOODS | 68.75 |
CONSUMER GOODS | BEVERAGES | 68.33 |
CONSUMER GOODS | TEXTILES | 54.44 |
CONSUMER GOODS | AUTO MANUFACTURERS- MAJOR | 45.00 |
CONSUMER GOODS | FOOD - MAJOR DIVERSIFIED | 42.50 |
CONSUMER GOODS | PERSONAL PRODUCTS | 42.00 |
FINANCIALS | REITS | 76.90 |
FINANCIALS | CREDIT SERVICES | 58.13 |
FINANCIALS | PROPERTY & CASUALITY INSURANCE | 58.13 |
FINANCIALS | MONEY CENTER BANKS | 55.00 |
FINANCIALS | LIFE INSURANCE | 54.17 |
FINANCIALS | FOREIGN MONEY CENTER BANKS | 51.00 |
FINANCIALS | REGIONAL BANKS | 46.00 |
FINANCIALS | ASSET MANAGEMENT | 45.00 |
FINANCIALS | INSURANCE BROKERS | 43.75 |
FINANCIALS | INVESTMENT BROKERAGE | 36.25 |
FINANCIALS | SAVINGS & LOANS | 32.50 |
HEALTHCARE | DRUG MANUFACTURERS | 69.57 |
HEALTHCARE | MEDICAL APPLIANCES & EQUIPMENT | 61.88 |
HEALTHCARE | HEALTH CARE PLANS | 59.00 |
HEALTHCARE | BIOTECHNOLOGY | 55.00 |
HEALTHCARE | MEDICAL INSTRUMENTS & SUPPLIES | 50.00 |
INDUSTRIAL GOODS | AEROSPACE/DEFENSE PRODUCTS & SERVICES | 78.00 |
INDUSTRIAL GOODS | DIVERSIFIED MACHINERY | 66.43 |
INDUSTRIAL GOODS | INDUSTRIAL EQUIPMENT & COMPONENTS | 56.25 |
INDUSTRIAL GOODS | FARM & CONSTRUCTION MACHINERY | 53.00 |
SERVICES | DRUG STORES | 77.50 |
SERVICES | RAILROADS | 64.00 |
SERVICES | ENTERTAINMENT- DIVERSIFIED | 62.50 |
SERVICES | GROCERY STORES | 61.67 |
SERVICES | LODGING | 60.00 |
SERVICES | CATV SYSTEMS | 59.29 |
SERVICES | BUSINESS SERVICES | 59.00 |
SERVICES | RESORTS AND CASINOS | 58.33 |
SERVICES | RESTAURANTS | 58.00 |
SERVICES | DEPARTMENT STORES | 53.33 |
SERVICES | AIR DELIVERY & FREIGHT SERVICES | 52.50 |
SERVICES | DISCOUNT, VARIETY STORES | 50.00 |
SERVICES | APPAREL STORES | 48.57 |
SERVICES | DRUGS WHOLESALE | 48.33 |
TECHNOLOGY | DIVERSIFIED COMMUNICATION SERVICES | 70.00 |
TECHNOLOGY | TELECOM SERVICES - DOMESTIC | 70.00 |
TECHNOLOGY | SEMICONDUCTOR- INTEGRATED CIRCUITS | 68.75 |
TECHNOLOGY | COMMUNICATION EQUIPMENT | 65.83 |
TECHNOLOGY | INTERNET INFORMATION PROVIDER | 62.50 |
TECHNOLOGY | BUSINESS SOFTWARE & SERVICES | 60.00 |
TECHNOLOGY | SEMICONDUCTOR-SPECIALIZED | 60.00 |
TECHNOLOGY | SCIENTIFIC & TECHNICAL INSTRUMENTS | 58.75 |
TECHNOLOGY | DIVERSIFIED COMPUTER SYSTEMS | 58.33 |
TECHNOLOGY | SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT & MATERIALS | 56.00 |
TECHNOLOGY | INTERNET SOFTWARE & SERVICES | 50.50 |
TECHNOLOGY | TECHINICAL & SYSTEM SOFTWARE | 49.17 |
TECHNOLOGY | SEMICONDUCTOR- BROAD LINE | 48.75 |
TECHNOLOGY | WIRELESS COMMUNICATIONS | 47.50 |
TECHNOLOGY | APPLICATION SOFTWARE | 46.00 |
TECHNOLOGY | DATA STORAGE DEVICES | 43.75 |
UTILITIES | ELECTRIC UTILITIES | 76.79 |
UTILITIES | DIVERSIFIED UTILITIES | 71.50 |
UTILITIES | FOREIGN UTILITIES | 55.00 |
None.