Large Cap Best And Worst Report

The highest scoring names in large cap from 1 year ago (4/2/2014) returned an average 21.35% in the past year with 94% of those scoring above 90 posting gains.  Performance has been led by CMG up 75%, BSX up 67%, and MGA up 67%.


  • The best large cap sector is utilities
  • The top large cap industry is industrial metals

Scores have rolled to reflect second quarter seasonality. That shift has provided new support to healthcare.  Broadly, second quarter seasonality rewards defensive baskets ahead of typical pre-summer portfolio de-risking. The top large cap sectors are utilities, healthcare, and industrial goods.
 
The average large cap score is 61.28, below the four week moving average of 64.18. The average large cap is trading -9.6% below its 52 week high, 4.52% above its 200 dma, has 3.94 days to cover held short, and is expected to generate EPS growth of 14% next year.
 
Consumer goods and technology score in line. Financials, basics, and services score below average. In financials, March and April are historically peak performing months for banking and capital markets, while May and June are weak returning months relative to the market.

LG CAP       4/3/2014 4 Week MA
Company Name Symbol Sector INDUSTRY SCORE SCORE
BEST          
CSX Corp CSX SERVICES RAILROADS 105 98.75
Johnson & Johnson JNJ HEALTHCARE DRUG MANUFACTURERS 105 67.5
Burger King BKW SERVICES RESTAURANTS 105 97.5
Amphenol Corp APH TECHNOLOGY DIVERSIFIED ELECTRONICS 100 98.75
Core Lab CLB BASIC MATERIALS OIL & GAS EQUIPMENT & SERVICES 100 91.25
Covance Inc. CVD HEALTHCARE RESEARCH SERVICES 100 88.75
EnCana Corp ECA BASIC MATERIALS INDEPENDENT OIL & GAS 100 95
Edison Intl EIX UTILITIES ELECTRIC UTILITIES 100 78.75
Eqt Corp EQT UTILITIES GAS UTILITIES 100 87.5
Essex Ppty Trust ESS FINANCIALS REITS 100 92.5
Edwards Lifesciences EW HEALTHCARE MEDICAL APPLIANCES & EQUIPMENT 100 91.25
General Dynamics GD INDUSTRIAL GOODS AEROSPACE/DEFENSE  PRODUCTS & SERVICES 100 91.25
Idexx Lab IDXX HEALTHCARE DIAGNOSTIC SUBSTANCES 100 81.25
Intuitive Surgical ISRG HEALTHCARE MEDICAL APPLIANCES & EQUIPMENT 100 90
Microchip Tech MCHP TECHNOLOGY SEMICONDUCTOR-SPECIALIZED 100 106.25
Merck MRK HEALTHCARE DRUG MANUFACTURERS 100 81.25
Nextera Energy NEE UTILITIES ELECTRIC UTILITIES 100 93.75
O'Reilly Auto ORLY SERVICES AUTO PARTS STORES 100 87.5
Pentair PNR INDUSTRIAL GOODS INDUSTRIAL EQUIPMENT & COMPONENTS 100 81.25
Transdigm Group Inc. TDG INDUSTRIAL GOODS AEROSPACE/DEFENSE  PRODUCTS & SERVICES 100 91.25
Wisconsin Energy WEC UTILITIES DIVERSIFIED UTILITIES 100 76.25
Endo Health Solutions ENDP HEALTHCARE DRUG MANUFACTURERS 100 80
Tyson Foods TSN CONSUMER GOODS MEAT PRODUCTS 100 95
Alexion Pharma ALXN HEALTHCARE DRUG MANUFACTURERS 95 88.75
American Express Co AXP FINANCIALS CREDIT SERVICES 95 76.25
Brown Forman Corp BF.B CONSUMER GOODS BEVERAGES 95 76.25
Cummins Inc CMI INDUSTRIAL GOODS DIVERSIFIED MACHINERY 95 76.25
Camden Ppty CPT FINANCIALS REITS 95 76.25
C V S Corp CVS SERVICES DRUG STORES 95 90
Walt Disney Company DIS SERVICES ENTERTAINMENT- DIVERSIFIED 95 95
Dover Corp DOV INDUSTRIAL GOODS DIVERSIFIED MACHINERY 95 62.5
The Directv Group Inc DTV TECHNOLOGY COMMUNICATION EQUIPMENT 95 77.5
DaVita Inc DVA HEALTHCARE SPECIALIZED HEALTH SERVICES 95 87.5
Eastman Chemical Co EMN BASIC MATERIALS CHEMICALS- MAJOR DIVERSIFIED 95 87.5
E O G Resources EOG BASIC MATERIALS INDEPENDENT OIL & GAS 95 76.25
Fidelity Nat'l Info Svcs FIS SERVICES BUSINESS SERVICES 95 86.25
Green Mtn. Coffee Roasters GMCR CONSUMER GOODS PROCESSED & PACKAGED GOODS 95 76.25
Halliburton HAL BASIC MATERIALS OIL & GAS EQUIPMENT & SERVICES 95 88.75
Hershey Foods HSY CONSUMER GOODS CONFECTIONERS 95 87.5
Illumina ILMN HEALTHCARE BIOTECHNOLOGY 95 90
L3 Communications LLL SERVICES SECURITY & PROTECTION SERVICES 95 88.75
Eli Lilly LLY HEALTHCARE DRUG MANUFACTURERS 95 65
Lorillard Inc LO CONSUMER GOODS CIGARETTES 95 92.5
Mdu Res Group Inc MDU INDUSTRIAL GOODS GENERAL BUILDING MATERIALS 95 87.5
M & T Bank MTB FINANCIALS REGIONAL BANKS 95 78.75
Northrup Grumman NOC INDUSTRIAL GOODS AEROSPACE/DEFENSE  PRODUCTS & SERVICES 95 87.5
P P L Corp PPL UTILITIES ELECTRIC UTILITIES 95 66.25
Quanta Svcs Inc PWR INDUSTRIAL GOODS GENERAL CONTRACTORS 95 73.75
S L Green SLG FINANCIALS REITS 95 87.5
Snap On Inc SNA INDUSTRIAL GOODS SMALL TOOLS & ACCESSORIES 95 87.5
Constellation Brands STZ CONSUMER GOODS BEVERAGES 95 65
Time Warner Cable Inc TWC SERVICES CATV SYSTEMS 95 72.5
Weatherfold International Inc WFT BASIC MATERIALS OIL & GAS EQUIPMENT & SERVICES 95 88.75
Xcel Energy Inc XEL UTILITIES ELECTRIC UTILITIES 95 80
           
WORST          
Bed Bath & Beyond BBBY SERVICES HOME FURNISHING & FIXTURES 20 31.25
Gerdau SA GGB BASIC MATERIALS STEEL & IRON 20 31.25
Mattel Inc MAT CONSUMER GOODS TOYS & GAMES 20 43.75
Nomura Holdings NMR FINANCIALS INVESTMENT BROKERAGE 20 27.5
Rackspace Hosting Inc. RAX TECHNOLOGY INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY SERVICES 20 31.25
Rackspace Hosting Inc. RAX TECHNOLOGY INTERNET SOFTWARE & SERVICES 20 31.25
Zoetis ZTS HEALTHCARE DRUGS-GENERIC 20 36.25
American Movil AMX TECHNOLOGY WIRELESS COMMUNICATIONS 25 50
Citigroup C FINANCIALS REGIONAL BANKS 25 25
Kinross Gold KGC BASIC MATERIALS GOLD 25 33.75
Lowes Corp LOW SERVICES HOME IMPROVEMENT STORES 25 47.5
Mobile Telesystems OJSC MBT TECHNOLOGY WIRELESS COMMUNICATIONS 25 46.25
Regeneron Pharma REGN HEALTHCARE BIOTECHNOLOGY 25 50
Red Hat Inc RHT TECHNOLOGY APPLICATION SOFTWARE 25 40
Reliance Steel & Alum. RS INDUSTRIAL GOODS METAL FABRICATION 25 50
Companhia Sid SID BASIC MATERIALS STEEL & IRON 25 41.25
Sirius Satellite SIRI SERVICES BROADCASTING 25 31.25
Silver Wheaton SLW BASIC MATERIALS SILVER 25 47.5
Incyte Corp INCY HEALTHCARE BIOTECHNOLOGY 25 46.25
Qiagen NV QGEN SERVICES RESEARCH SERVICES 25

50

 

The following table provides insight into market second quarter seasonality. Generally, markets downshift to neutral in the second quarter, with the SPY gaining in 6 of the past 10 years, returning a median 0.73% in the quarter.

The following chart visualizes our models' historical scores for our large cap universe.

The best large cap industry is industrial metals & minerals.  Aerospace/defense stocks score highly ahead of summer air show order season. Electric utilities historically benefit ahead of summer peak demand season.  Auto parts demand continues to be supported by domestic production/demand. Recovering demand in Europe provides upside and remains under-modeled. Specialized semi rounds out the best scoring list this week. Semiconductor seasonality is solid into peak SEMI book-to-bill in Q2.

In big cap basics, buy industrial metals & minerals, major chemicals, and ag chemicals.

In consumer, focus on auto parts, beverages, and processed & packaged goods. Beverages are typically strong performers ahead of hot weather demand. In financials, concentrate on credit services, REITs and money centers. April marks the peak seasonal performance for banks and capital markets. 

Every healthcare group scores above average, led by drug makers, medical appliances, and health care plans.  The best industrial goods groups are aerospace/defense, diversified machinery, and industrial equipment. In services, managers should be overweight drug stores, rails, and lodging.  The top tech groups are semi specialized, semi equipment, communication equipment, and diversified computers. Utilities offer robust seasonality into summer.

LG CAP INDUSTRY SCORE BY SECTOR   4/3/2014
Sector Industry SCORE
     
BASIC MATERIALS INDUSTRIAL METALS & MINERALS 80.00
BASIC MATERIALS CHEMICALS- MAJOR DIVERSIFIED 73.33
BASIC MATERIALS AGRICULTURAL CHEMICALS 67.00
BASIC MATERIALS INDEPENDENT OIL & GAS 66.18
BASIC MATERIALS OIL & GAS EQUIPMENT & SERVICES 65.45
BASIC MATERIALS MAJOR INTEGRATED OIL AND GAS 62.50
BASIC MATERIALS OIL & GAS PIPELINES 62.50
BASIC MATERIALS OIL & GAS DRILLING & EXPLORATION 58.75
BASIC MATERIALS OIL & GAS REFINING & MARKETING 50.83
BASIC MATERIALS GOLD 40.00
BASIC MATERIALS STEEL & IRON 36.43
CONSUMER GOODS AUTO PARTS 75.83
CONSUMER GOODS BEVERAGES 75.00
CONSUMER GOODS PROCESSED & PACKAGED GOODS 68.75
CONSUMER GOODS CIGARETTES 67.50
CONSUMER GOODS FOOD - MAJOR DIVERSIFIED 60.00
CONSUMER GOODS TEXTILES 57.50
CONSUMER GOODS AUTO MANUFACTURERS- MAJOR 45.83
CONSUMER GOODS PERSONAL PRODUCTS 41.00
FINANCIALS CREDIT SERVICES 73.13
FINANCIALS REITS 70.71
FINANCIALS MONEY CENTER BANKS 68.33
FINANCIALS REGIONAL BANKS 65.00
FINANCIALS ASSET MANAGEMENT 56.25
FINANCIALS PROPERTY & CASUALITY INSURANCE 54.06
FINANCIALS FOREIGN MONEY CENTER BANKS 52.00
FINANCIALS LIFE INSURANCE 50.83
FINANCIALS INVESTMENT BROKERAGE 47.50
FINANCIALS INSURANCE BROKERS 45.00
FINANCIALS SAVINGS & LOANS 40.00
HEALTHCARE DRUG MANUFACTURERS 69.57
HEALTHCARE MEDICAL APPLIANCES & EQUIPMENT 69.44
HEALTHCARE HEALTH CARE PLANS 68.00
HEALTHCARE MEDICAL INSTRUMENTS & SUPPLIES 63.89
HEALTHCARE BIOTECHNOLOGY 55.42
INDUSTRIAL GOODS AEROSPACE/DEFENSE  PRODUCTS & SERVICES 77.50
INDUSTRIAL GOODS DIVERSIFIED MACHINERY 72.86
INDUSTRIAL GOODS INDUSTRIAL EQUIPMENT & COMPONENTS 62.50
INDUSTRIAL GOODS FARM & CONSTRUCTION MACHINERY 49.00
SERVICES DRUG STORES 75.00
SERVICES RAILROADS 75.00
SERVICES LODGING 72.50
SERVICES RESORTS AND CASINOS 66.67
SERVICES DRUGS WHOLESALE 65.00
SERVICES RESTAURANTS 65.00
SERVICES BUSINESS SERVICES 62.00
SERVICES DEPARTMENT STORES 60.00
SERVICES GROCERY STORES 60.00
SERVICES CATV SYSTEMS 59.29
SERVICES ENTERTAINMENT- DIVERSIFIED 58.75
SERVICES APPAREL STORES 49.29
SERVICES DISCOUNT, VARIETY STORES 47.50
SERVICES AIR DELIVERY & FREIGHT SERVICES 43.75
TECHNOLOGY SEMICONDUCTOR-SPECIALIZED 75.63
TECHNOLOGY SEMICONDUCTOR- INTEGRATED CIRCUITS 73.75
TECHNOLOGY COMMUNICATION EQUIPMENT 71.67
TECHNOLOGY DIVERSIFIED COMPUTER SYSTEMS 70.00
TECHNOLOGY SEMICONDUCTOR- BROAD LINE 67.50
TECHNOLOGY DATA STORAGE DEVICES 63.75
TECHNOLOGY BUSINESS SOFTWARE & SERVICES 62.00
TECHNOLOGY SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT & MATERIALS 62.00
TECHNOLOGY DIVERSIFIED COMMUNICATION SERVICES 61.67
TECHNOLOGY TELECOM SERVICES - DOMESTIC 61.67
TECHNOLOGY INTERNET INFORMATION PROVIDER 59.29
TECHNOLOGY SCIENTIFIC & TECHNICAL INSTRUMENTS 58.75
TECHNOLOGY TECHINICAL & SYSTEM SOFTWARE 57.50
TECHNOLOGY APPLICATION SOFTWARE 55.56
TECHNOLOGY INTERNET SOFTWARE & SERVICES 52.00
TECHNOLOGY WIRELESS COMMUNICATIONS 45.00
UTILITIES ELECTRIC UTILITIES 77.14
UTILITIES DIVERSIFIED UTILITIES 72.50
UTILITIES FOREIGN UTILITIES 46.67
 

 

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