Jobless Claims Remain Neutral
In addition to the jobs report, because this is Thursday we also got the latest jobless claims numbers.
To wit, initial claims declined -4,000 to 233,000, and the four week moving average declined -3,750 to 241,500. With the typical one week delay, continuing claims were unchanged at 1.964 million:
(Click on image to enlarge)
The more important for forecasting purposes YoY% changes for once included a positive, as initial claims were down -2.1%. The four week average was higher by 1.8%, and continuing claims were higher by 5.4%:
(Click on image to enlarge)
Because claims for just one week are noisy, this week’s report remains neutral. This is not recessionary, but does not indicate a strong economy either.
More By This Author:
June Jobs Report Weakness: Not Enough For “Recession Watch,” But Not Too Far Away Either
JOLTS Survey For May Still Consistent With “Soft Landing” Scenario
Construction Spending Continues Contraction, Amplifying Yellow Flag Caution From Manufacturing