Initial jobless claims last week declined -2,000 to 220,000, while the four week average increased 1,500 to 226,000. With the typical one week delay, continued claims declined -27,000 to 1.870 million:

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On the YoY basis more important for forecasting purposes, initial claims were up 4.2%, and the four week moving average was up 8.3%. Continued claims were up 3.7%:

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These are “neutral” readings. While they indicate some weakness, they do not indicate recession.

State level data from one week ago indicated that while layoffs from federal government jobs are having a pronounced local effect in the Washington DC metro area, they are only increasing the weekly totals by about 2,000:

In DC itself, claims were up 853 YoY to 1405, an increase of 154.5%. 

In MD, claims were up 238 to 2,585, an increase of 10.5%.

And in VA, claims were up 707 to 2,881, an increase of 35.4%.

For all three jurisdictions, claims were up 1,798, and increase of 35.4%.

It is actually surprising that there has been no greater effect in these numbers.

Finally, here’s an update of what initial + continuing claims imply for the unemployment rate in the immediate months ahead:

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Because the graph indicates YoY% changes, the proper calculation is 3.9% unemployment one year ago increasing by roughly 5% (i.e., 3.9*1.05), suggesting unemployment, which was 4.1% in February continues in that range.

In any event, while it isn’t quite “steady as she goes” anymore, it’s not yellow flag territory either.

More By This Author:

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