Wild Swings in USDJPY

We’re seeing huge volatility in the Japanese Yen at the start of the week. After hitting fresh multi decade highs of above 160, USDJPY sharply retreated this morning, plunging lower by over 500 pips. The move suggests that Japanese authorities have finally intervened in the market after plenty of anticipation over recent weeks. On the back of the Yen’s continued depreciation post-BOJ, many have warned over the growing risk of intervention. Indeed, both the BOJ and Japanese government have warned that they are watching FX markets and stand ready to act as necessary though up until the end of last week, JPY depreciation looked to have gone unchecked.

Awaiting Details

Japanese traders are off for the bank holiday there today, meaning any actions will have been amplified by thinner holiday volumes. Japan’s top currency official Masato Kanda has so far refrained from commenting on the moves in FX markets, telling reporters “no comments for now”. Traders will now be awaiting details of the move and the actions taken particularly with regard to assessing whether this was a one off move or the beginning of a campaign of action. If the latter, then USDJPY looks vulnerable to further downside. If the former, then we could still see a fresh push higher in the pair, particularly if incoming comments at the FOMC and incoming US data this week drives fresh USD bullishness.

Technical Views

USDJPY

The reversal lower has seen the pair trading back down below the 158.28 and 156.42 levels, back inside the bull channel once again. The market is currently stalled at support at 154.89. Should we break below here, 2151.81 and the bull channel lows will be the next support to note. 

(Click on image to enlarge)

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