January 2021 Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey Declines

Of the four regional Federal Reserve manufacturing surveys released to date, all are in expansion. 

Analyst Opinion of Richmond Manufacturing

The important Richmond Fed subcategories (new orders and unfilled orders) are in expansion but declined this month. We consider this survey much worse than last month.

Market expectations from Econoday were ------- (consensus ------). The actual survey value was 14 [note that values above zero represent expansion].

The Fifth District manufacturing sector showed signs of growth in January, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite index fell from 19 in December to 14 in January but remained in expansionary territory, as did all three of its component indexes—shipments, new orders, and employment. Manufacturers reported lengthening vendor lead times, as this index rose to 39, its highest reading since January 1996. Overall, manufacturers were optimistic that conditions would continue to improve in the coming months.

Survey results indicated that many manufacturers increased employment and wages in January. However, respondents struggled to find workers with the necessary skills. Firms expected this difficulty to persist but employment and wages to rise in the next six months.

The average growth rates of both prices paid and prices received by survey participants increased in January, as growth of prices paid continued to outpace that of prices received. Respondents expected this trend to continue in the near future

Richmond Fed (hyperlink to reports):

Summary of all Federal Reserve Districts Manufacturing:

Kansas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

Dallas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

Philly Fed (hyperlink to reports):

New York Fed (hyperlink to reports):

Federal Reserve Industrial Production - Actual Data (hyperlink to report):

Holding this and other survey's Econintersect follows accountable for their predictions, the following graph compares the hard data from Industrial Products manufacturing subindex (dark blue bar) and US Census manufacturing shipments (red bar) to the Richmond Fed survey (darkest bar).

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