January 2021 ECRI's WLI Growth Rate Continues To Improve

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward improved and remains in expansion.

Analyst Opinion of the trends of the weekly leading indices

Please note that the coronavirus is a black swan event and the decline was immediate. In theory, this index is now indicating that in the second or third quarter of 2021 the economy should be in expansion year-over-year

Here is this week's update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (a positive number indicates growth):

Weekly Leading Index Decreases

ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) decreased to 146.1. The growth rate increased to 16.1%, a 569-week high.

ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cycle chronologies for 22 countries that can be freely accessed here.

The WLI is one of many ECRI U.S. leading indexes, including some with longer leads over cyclical turning points in economic growth.

For a quick glance at the WLI's recent performance, please see the chart below.

The Best Way to Use the Weekly Leading Index (WLI)

Review ECRI's current real-time track record.

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U.S. Coincident Index:

ECRI produces a monthly coincident index. The November economy's rate of growth (released in December showed the rate of growth improved and now growth is in expansion.

U.S. Lagging Index:

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The November economy's rate of growth (released in December) showed the rate of growth improved but remains in contraction.

Source: ECRI

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