January 2019 Empire State Manufacturing Index Declined And At Lowest Level In Over One Year

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey index significantly declined and remains barely in expansion. The key internals declined with unfilled orders in contraction.

Analyst Opinion of Empire State Manufacturing Survey

With both the main index and key indices declining, this was a much worse report than last month...

Econintersect reminds you that this is a survey (a quantification of opinion). Please see caveats at the end of this post. However, sometimes it is better not to look too deeply into the details of a noisy survey as just the overview is all you need to know

  • Expectations from Econoday were for a reading between 10.9 to 13.0 (consensus 12.0) versus the3.9 reported. Any value above zero shows expansion for the New York area manufacturers.
  • New orders sub-index of the Empire State Manufacturing declined but remains barely in expansion, whilst the unfilled orders sub-index declining and slipping deeper in contraction
  • This noisy index has moved from 17.7 (January 2018), 13.1 (February), 22.5 (March), 15.8 (April), 20.1 (May), 25.0 (June), 22.6 (July), 25.6 (August), 19.0 (September), 21.1 (October), 23.2 (November), 10.9 (December) - and now 3.9

From the report:

Business activity grew slightly in New York State, according to firms responding to the January 2019 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell eight points to 3.9, its lowest level in well over a year. New orders increased at a slower pace than in recent months, while shipments continued to climb significantly. Delivery times were slightly shorter, and inventories declined. Labor market indicators pointed to a modest increase in employment and hours worked. The prices paid index moved lower for a second consecutive month, indicating some slowing in input price increases, and the prices received index held steady. Looking ahead, firms were less optimistic about the six-month outlook than they were last month.


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