ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward marginally improved but remains in contraction. ECRI also released their coincident index this week.

Analyst Opinion of the trends of the weekly leading indices

The current forecast is a slight economic contraction six months from today.

Here is this week's update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):

Weekly Leading Index Edges Up

ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) edged up to 145.8 as WLI growth increased to -5.3%.

On mobile click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click the "Full Site" link to download the data. 

On desktop click here to download WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. 

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The WLI is just one of many ECRI U.S. leading indexes, including some with longer leads over cyclical turning points in economic growth.

For more on ECRI's cyclical outlook, please see links below for information that we have made public:

- watch ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan recent interview on "The Fed, Markets, Growth & Inflation" on Reuters

- read ECRI's "Colliding With the Economic Cycle - Again"

- review ECRI's "2018 Cycle Calls"

For a quick glance at the WLI's performance, please see the chart below: 

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Click here to review ECRI's recent real-time track record.

For information on ECRI professional services please contact us.

Coincident Index:

ECRI produces a monthly coincident index - a positive number shows economic expansion. The December index value (issued in January) shows the rate of economic growth declined.

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ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure. Inflation pressures further subsided in December.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:

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ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The November economy's rate of growth (released in December) showed the rate of growth improved.

U.S. Lagging Index:

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source: ECRI