It’s Over

French elections are over.

The Populist hydra has been slain (for now) and the world has taken a step back from a repeat of pre-WW2 political turmoil. Center globalist Macron bulldozed the “French Trump”, winning 66.1% of the vote.

Macron did very well among the rich and educated white collar demographic. Le Pen on the other hand attracted the blue collar, less “sophisticated” rural working class.

In essence, the vote was a battle between the “haves” and “have nots”. If you’re doing well in life, you don’t want Le Pen rocking the boat. But if you’re out of work and struggling, then you want someone who can overturn the established regime.

This is the exact dynamic we saw with Trump. The “haves” wanted the stability of Hillary. The “have nots” wanted Trump to shake things up and make factory jobs great again. In America’s case, there were a lot more “have nots” than what people thought — hence the Trump upset.

So what happened in France? Why wasn’t Le Pen able to do the same?

It’s because she didn’t persuade the old folk.

Both the Brexit and Trump events were heavily supported by older demographics. The older you were, the more likely you were to vote for the populist option.

But this wasn’t the case in French elections.

Le Pen supporters actually topped out around 40 years of age and then rapidly tailed off. Only passionate young people, still jockeying for position in the work force, wanted to upset the apple cart. The old folks didn’t want to live out their golden years in the midst of an EU breakup, with a currency change to boot.

Despite the bad beat, Le Pen actually took it pretty well. She was caught dancing away at a nightclub on the night of her defeat in classic French “C’est la vie” fashion.

Anyone paying attention to the markets knew what was coming. On the Friday before elections, investors were so confident in Macron, that they pushed French equities to new highs for the year.

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Disclaimer: All statements are solely opinions and are for educational purposes only.

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