Is Job Switching On The Decline?

The researchers developed a statistical adjustment to the Fallick-Fleischman measure to account for this bias (the blue line label our series in the following chart - this is the same as the first chart) that tells a somewhat different story than the original measure (yellow line).

Rate of Employer-to-Employer Transitions (12-month moving average)

Source Fujita et al. (2019)

In particular, the adjusted job-switching rate is only moderately lower than it was 20 years ago and has fully recovered from the decline experienced during the Great Recession. Although a decline in job switching might be a factor in the story behind low wage growth, based on this adjusted measure it doesn't seem like the dominant factor. The low wage growth puzzle remains a puzzle.

Source.

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John Robertson, a senior policy ...

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