Is It A Bull Market Or Bear Market In Metals?

Without fail, each and every time the metals have dropped since bottoming over a year ago, many panic and proclaim the bear market to have returned. Moreover, many have looked to the USD as their guide to what the metals will do, and are completely befuddled when the dollar trades in tandem with the metals, as we have seen for almost two months.

As for me, well, since I was taught at a young age not to “ASSUME,” I only listen to price and try to ignore emotion as much as humanly possible. For this reason, I rely on my analysis to make decisions, as relying upon emotion often puts you on the wrong side of the market at the exact worst time.

Now, clearly, relying on analysis means that I am expecting the market to play out based upon probabilities, rather than certainties. So, I have to expect that I will be wrong in my analysis at times. However, the reason I utilize the analysis I do is because, over time, it has kept me on the right side of the market the great majority of the time, even though it “feels” as though the rest of the market disagrees with my perspective.

Over the last few weeks, the bearish voices have become quite vociferous in their proclamation that the bear market has returned. Yet, as we were dropping into the target I placed on the GDX several weeks ago, I kept reminding those who would listen that one should ignore their emotions of fear, and focus upon the risk/reward being presented before you on the GDX chart, at least as long as we maintain over support.

Now, while I still do not have a high probability confirmation that the bottom has been struck because we still have not completed a larger degree 5 wave structure off that bottom, any further drops to a lower low will likely be met by a strong reversal. The reason I say that is based upon the positive divergences setting up at the bottoming region of late.

You see, a textbook a-b-c corrective structure actually sees the a-wave decline presenting a technically strong price drop, whereas the c-wave presents as a weaker price drop relative to the a-wave, which provides us with a positively divergent bottoming in our technical indicators. 

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Avi Gilburt is a widely followed Elliott Wave technical analyst and author of ElliottWaveTrader.net ( more

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