Inversions Galore

The number of US Treasury bond inversions took a big leap today. I count 5 inversions, three of them with the 1-Yr bill.

In this snapshot, the 5-year, 3-year, and 2-year treasury yields inverted with the 1-year yield.

In addition, the 3-year yield inverted with the 2-year yield and the 3-month with the 1-month.

Debt Worries?

Despite the flattening and now inverting yield curve, note that the spread between the 10-year and 7-year bond actually rose over the course of 2018.

The spread between the 30-year long bond and the 10-year note is nearly what it was a year ago.

I believe this is a strong bond market signal that the end of the bond bull market approaches. It's possible it's already over. But I do expect one more strong push lower in yields as recession hits in 2019.

We have enormous deficits as far as the eye can see from a starting point of $21 trillion in debt.

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