Though not quite to February rates:

Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation for core CPI (blue), core PCE deflator (brown), core PCE deflator (market) (green) per Eeckhout (2023), T=12, a=4.  Source: BLS, BEA, via FRED, and author’s calculations. 

How has inflation evolved for people changed, as compared to the CPI. I plot the CPI inflation for the 2nd quintile of households by income, and AIER’s Everyday Price Index (EPI) inflation below in Figure 2.

Figure 2: Instantaneous inflation for CPI (blue), for CPI for 2nd quintile by household income (brown), for AIER’s Everyday Price Index(green), per Eeckhout (2023), T=12, a=4.  Source: BLS, BLS, via FRED, AIER,and author’s calculations. 

The instantaneous inflation rate of the EPI is above 5%, substantial above the 2.7% recorded using the headline CPI, and rising.

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