Initial Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of July 19 And 26

​ ​Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

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  Forecast Prior Observation  
Week of July 19      
July 19      
NAHB Index - July 82 81  
       
July 20      
Housing Starts - June 1.620M 1.572  
Building Permits 1.705 1.683  
       
July 22      
Initial Unemployment Claims      
Chicago Fed National Activity Index - June 0.30 0.29  
       
Leading Indicators  1.1% 1.3  
Existing Home Sales - June 5.825K 5.800  
       
July 23      
PMI Manufacturing Flash Index 62.1 62.1  
PMI Services Flash Index 65.1 64.6  
       
Week of July 26      
July 26      
New Home Sales - June 800K 769  
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index 31.1 31.1  
       
July 27      
Durable Goods Orders - June 1.0% 2.3  
       
S&P Case/Shiller Index - May      
Twenty City M/M 1.7 2.1  
Twenty City M/M - SA 1.5 1.6  
Twenty City Y/Y 16.4 14.9  
       
FHFA Home Price Index - May 1.8% 1.8  
Consumer Confidence - July 128.3 127.3  
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 20 22  
       
July 28      
International Trade in Goods - June -$89.0B 88.1  
Wholesale Inventories - June (a) 1.30% 1.3  
FMOC 0.125% 0.125  
       
July 29      
GDP - Q2 (a) 9.2% 6.4  
Pending Home Sale Index - June 110.5 114.7  
       
July 30      
Employment Cost Index - Q2 0.9% 0.9  
Employment Cost Index - Y/Y 2.70 2.6  
       
Personal Income - June -0.9% -2.0  
Personal Spending 0.4 0.0  
       
Chicago PMI - July 65.0 66.1  
       

Peter Morici is an economist and emeritus business professor at the University of Maryland, and a national columnist.

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