(Click on image to enlarge)

Industrial Production Percent Change Month-Over-Month

Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

Please consider the Fed’s Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization report for December 2025.

Industrial Production (IP) increased 0.4 percent in December and grew at an annual rate of 0.7 percent in the fourth quarter. Manufacturing output rose 0.2 percent in December but declined at an annual rate of 0.7 percent in the fourth quarter. In December, the index for mining fell 0.7 percent while the index for utilities climbed 2.6 percent. At 102.3 percent of its 2017 average, total IP in December was 2.0 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization stepped up to 76.3 percent, a rate that is 3.2 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2024) average.

Industrial Production Month-Over-Month Details

• Industrial Production: 0.4 percent
• Manufacturing: 0.2 percent
• Motor Vehicles and Parts: -1.1 percent
• Consumer Durable Good: -0.7 percent
• Utilities: +2.6 percent

Those are my calculations, matching the Fed’s posted numbers.

Q: How much did utilities impact the bottom line number?
A: Calculation Below

As per Fed Supplemental Data, utilities weight is 12.48 percent of Industrial production.

2.6 * .1248 = 0.324 percentage points of the 0.4 percentage point rise.

But to three decimal points, I calculate the December 2025 increase in IP at 0.365 percent.

Thus, utilities provided 0.324 of 0.365 = 88.8 percent of the increase in IP this month.

Once again, the growth is AI-related.

Industrial Production Index

(Click on image to enlarge)

Industrial Production indexes: IP, Manufacturing, Utilities

Industrial Production Index Recent Detail

(Click on image to enlarge)

Industrial Production Index Detail Since 2007

(Click on image to enlarge)

Industrial Production indexes: IP, Manufacturing, Utilities – Details Since 2007

Industrial Production Index Details Since 2007

• The all-time high for manufacturing IP was December 2007 at 106.6. We have not come close since, currently 98.2.
• The then all-time high for overall IP was December 2007 at 102.4 We hit a new high of 104.1 in September of 2018, currently 102.3 (under the December 2007 high).

Industrial Production Percent Change Since 2007-12

• Manufacturing IP: -7.9 percent
• Total IP: -0.1 percent
• Utilities: +13.0 percent

18 Years of Negative Industrial Production

If I am not mistaken, 18 years of negative IP except utilities is a sobering statistic.

Related Posts

December 27, 2025: Only a Third of CEOs Plan to Hire Workers in 2026

66% will fire workers or play wait and see with AI.

January 7, 2026: ADP: White Collar Jobs Clobbered in 6 of the Last 7 Months

Professional and Business Services jobs are down five months and seven of last eight.

January 13, 2026: The Fed Has Missed Its Inflation Target on Ten Different Measures

The Atlanta Fed tracks various inflation targets. Let’s have a look.

January 15, 2026: Real Average Hourly Earnings Have Been Negative for Five Months

Wages are not keeping up with inflation.

A Prediction that Did Age Well

September 7, 2025: Electricity Costs Are Soaring and AI Will Make Matters Worse

Electricity demand for AI data centers is soaring. The result won’t be pretty.

Is the economy booming or what?

More By This Author: