The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is suggesting that global trade will see “modest growth” over the course of 2015. As is to be expected, given the various economic and geopolitical factors which invariably affect parts of the world to a greater or lesser extent than others, the growth is variable. As a whole, the IMF is projecting that the global economy will grow by 3.5% - the CIA (yes, that one!) estimates the value of the world economy to be about $107.5 trillion (2014). The growth projected would add approximately $3.8 trillion to this figure.

Unsurprisingly, the collapse of the oil price, since last summer, is mixed news for the world economy. According to the IMF, the lower oil price will help the UK economy to see steady growth (this should apply to any nation which imports significant amounts of oil, of course), predicted at 2.7%. Oil producing nations, such as Russia, will feel the pinch caused by lower revenues, although this will be partially offset by the high value of the Dollar since it is the major currency used for oil trading. The Russian economy is predicted to contract by 3.8% in 2015. On a brighter note, the economy of neighbouring Ukraine is expected to stabilise this year, bottoming out of the current economic cycle and experiencing a contraction of 5.5%. Of course, this projection supposes that the conflict in the east of Ukraine will not escalate.

The US economy will grow more slowly than previously forecast, but is still expected to see expansion of 3.1% this year.

The IMF thinks that the Eurozone will see growth of 1.5% this year and 1.6% next, although the risk of a Greek exit from the Euro is not specifically discussed. On the other hand, the Chinese economy is expected to cool, with this year’s growth hitting 6.8% and dipping to 6.3% next year.