How The Nasdaq Could Reach 10,000 In 2019

Who would have thought I would be forecasting that the Nasdaq could zoom to 10,000 this year?

Two things have changed my perspective in recent months: The Q4 2018 crash didn’t approach the typical 40% loss in the first two to three months, as was typical of most major bubbles… and my newer 90-Year Bubble Buster Cycle.

That 90-year Cycle is a “double variation’ of my proven 45-Year Innovation Cycle. It has marked the greatest bubble peaks and “resets” since the Industrial Revolution (1837 to 1842 and 1929 to 1932).

If the current correction doesn’t crash down much harder by early February – which doesn’t look likely at this point – then a final blow-off rally would be most consistent with past major bubbles, especially the ones that hit on this 90-year cycle.

What I’ve Been Looking At…

I’ve been looking at the finally bubble rallies on all the key indices: The S&P 500, the Dow, and especially the Nasdaq because it’s the lead bubble of the lot.

What I am noticing is that the best support on the final rallies since early 2009 come from a linear trend-line through the bottoms, but the best rally and upside targets come from exponential trend-lines through the tops.

Here’s my best chart for the leading Nasdaq… 

What This Chart Is Telling Us…

First note that bottom linear trend-line. It comes through at around 5,500 in early February.

The same trend-line on the S&P 500 comes through around 2,300 currently and will be hit first, and hence, be the first warning, if broken, that this Nasdaq support line could be hit. Again, the Nasdaq is the trump card here.

Next note the progressive nature of the rally.

The first wave into 2011 was more normal.

The next wave into 2015 was more exponential.

The most recent wave into late 2018 was more exponential again.

The markets are making similar point-gains in 38% of the time in each successive wave – that is THE definition of exponential and bubbles are the most exponential scenarios.

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