How Changes In Employment Forecast Biden's Win In The 2020 Election

16 States had employment declines of 7% or greater in 2020. Guess what else they had in common.

Year-Over-Year Percentage Employment Declines

  1. Hawaii: -13.8%
  2. Michigan: -10.9%
  3. New York: -10.4%
  4. Massachusetts: -9.1%
  5. Vermont: -9.0%
  6. New Hampshire: -8.8%
  7. Rhode Island: -8.7%
  8. Minnesota: -8.3%
  9. California: -8.0%
  10. New Jersey: -8.0%
  11. Delaware: -7.8%
  12. Oregon: -7.8%
  13. Pennsylvania: -7.8%
  14. Maine: -7.7%
  15. New Mexico: -7.6%
  16. Wisconsin: -7.0%

The stats are from the BLS report on State Unemployment Levels for December 2020.

All of the above states had year-over-year employment declines of 7.0% or more. 

They all went for Joe Biden in the 2020 election.

Highest Unemployment Rates in 2020

  1. Hawaii: 9.3%
  2. Nevada: 9.2%
  3. California: 9.0%
  4. Colorado: 8.4%
  5. New Mexico: 8.2%
  6. New York: 8.2%
  7. Rhode Island: 8.1%
  8. Connecticut: 8.0%
  9. District of Columbia: 7.9%
  10. Illinois: 7.6%
  11. New Jersey: 7.6%
  12. Arizona: 7.5%
  13. Michigan: 7.5%
  14. Massachusetts: 7.4%
  15. Louisiana: 7.2%
  16. Texas 7.2%
  17. Washington: 7.1%

All of the above states plus D.C. had unemployment rates over 7.0%. Except for Texas and Louisiana, they all went for Joe Biden in the 2020 election.

Arizona, Nevada, Colorado, Connecticut, D.C., Washington, and Illinois are in the second group only.  

Hawaii, California, Connecticut, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, Michigan, Massachusetts, and New Jersey are in both groups.

Election Notes

  • The 16 of 16 states where employment declined by 7.0% or more went to Joe Biden in the election.
  • The 15 of 17 states with unemployment rates over 7.0% also went to Biden.
  • There are 22 states plus D.C in at least one group.
  • Those 22 states plus D.C. have a combined total of 262 Electoral College votes, just short of the 270 Biden needed to win the election.
  • Biden also carried Virginia, Maryland, Georgia, and the Omaha region in Nebraska. Those are shown in brown on my 270 to Win Map
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