Housing starts, permits, completions from Census Department, chart by Mish

Please consider another heavily revised New Residential Construction report from the Census Department. 

Building Permits 

• Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,524,000. 
• This is 13.8 percent above the revised January rate of 1,339,000, but is 17.9 percent below the February 2022 rate of 1,857,000. 
• Single‐family authorizations in February were at a rate of 777,000; this is 7.6 percent above the revised January figure of 722,000. 
• Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 700,000 in February. 

Housing Starts 

• Privately‐owned housing starts in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,450,000. This is 9.8 percent (±15.5 percent) above the revised January estimate of 1,321,000, but is 18.4 percent (±8.9 percent) below the February 2022 rate of 1,777,000. 
• Single‐family housing starts in February were at a rate of 830,000; this is 1.1 percent (±13.9 percent) above the revised January figure of 821,000. 
• The February rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 608,000. 

Housing Completions 

• Privately‐owned housing completions in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,557,000. This is 12.2 percent (±15.0 percent) above the revised January estimate of 1,388,000 and is 12.8 percent (±16.2 percent) above the February 2022 rate of 1,380,000. 
• Single‐family housing completions in February were at a rate of 1,037,000; this is 1.0 percent (±15.0 percent) above the revised January rate of 1,027,000. 
• The February rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 509,000. 

Housing Starts Single Family vs Multi-Family 

Year Ago vs Now

• Total Starts: Year Ago 1,777 Now 1,450
• 2+ Units: Year Ago 564 Now 620
• Single Family: Year Ago 1,213 Now 830

Expect More Negative Revisions

In December, I commented"Housing starts and permits declined again in December with negative revisions to November."

In January, I commented "The Census department revised December starts from 1.382 million at a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate (SAAR), to 1.371 million."

This month, I note still more revisions.

January single-family starts went from 841,000 to 821,000. So today we have an increase to 830,000. But total starts in January were revised higher, meaning more apartment building construction. 

In January, the Census Bureau revised total December starts lower to 1,371,000. Today I see another whopping revision lower to 1,348,000.  

Those big negative revisions helped fuel today's surprise 8.9 percent jump in starts. 

Last month, I concluded "Negative revisions are likely."

Indeed, what a joke. Meanwhile, single-family starts remain depressed.

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