Home Price Growth Was The Lowest Since January 2015

Home Price Growth - Housing To Hurt Q4 GDP Growth

It’s pretty obvious at this point that the housing market was terrible in November and December.

Prices were unaffordable especially in some cities in the West. The stock market was volatile, and the decline in interest rates didn’t start helping the housing market by then.

This housing market weakness should hurt Q4 GDP growth. 4 economic reports by the BEA have been rescheduled, but the GDP, Personal Income and Outlays, and the December U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services reports still don’t have a new release date.

Based on release dates for the data that was delayed, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Q4 GDP report come out in March. The Atlanta Fed GDP tracker shows growth will be 2.7%. But it doesn’t have all the data it normally would at this point in the quarter.

It’s clear that if the government shuts down on February 15th again, the economic data will all be messed up. Delayed data that was supposed to come out at a later date will be delayed again.

Home Price Growth - Housing Price Growth Weakened Sharply In November

The November CoreLogic Case Shiller Home Price Index supports the thesis that the housing market was weak in November. Especially in the previously hot markets in the West.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, monthly price growth in the 20 city index was 0.4% which missed estimates and last month’s reading of 0.4% growth. Non-seasonally adjusted monthly growth was -0.1% which was below estimates for 0.2% and the previous reading of no growth.

As you can see from the chart below, yearly non-seasonally adjusted price growth was 4.68%. It missed estimates for 4.9% growth and 5% growth last month.

Home Price Growth - Recent price growth peaked in March 2018.

That will be the toughest comparison coming up. The price growth in November was the weakest since January 2015.

(Click on image to enlarge)

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