Grains Report - Monday, Nov. 2

WHEAT

General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were lower on strength in the US Dollar and reports of good rains in much of the Great Plains. Reports of very beneficial rains in Russia were also around. Support came in part on the strong weekly export sales report. The export demand has held together well despite the fact that US prices are high in the world market. Not all of the dry areas off the Great Plains got the rains and snow, but many did. Parts of southern Russia could see some relief from drought as a few showers are in the forecast. It is still a weather market and the planting weather is dry in many northern hemisphere areas, but the weather is starting to chip away at the drier areas. This is especially true in the US where the drought is a thing of the past for much of the western Great Plains. Only parts of southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas are still too dry. Southern Russia could stay mostly dry away from the showers that are forecast to fall. Eastern sections of Ukraine should get a few showers. Kazakhstan should stay dry. Farmers in Russia and surrounding areas are not really selling much of the current crop due to fears about the production of the next crop. Less production is likely in Argentina due to drought, but the rains are good now. Western Australia has also been very dry, but eastern Australia is in very good condition. The Midwest has had good rains after a dry period. Much of Europe is in good condition.

Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get drier weather. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see drier weather. Temperatures will be below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see light snow. Temperatures should be below normal.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 594, 572, and 560 December. Support is at 587, 576, and 561 December, with resistance at 616, 620, and 629 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 529 and 502 December. Support is at 532, 524, and 518 December, with resistance at 549, 559, and 565 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 543 and 505 December. Support is at 547, 540, and 535 December, and resistance is at 559, 570, and 579 December.

RICE

General Comments: Rice was higher last week for November, but lower in the other months. An improved weekly export sales report was seen once again. Export demand has been strong in general. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been poor to average with better consumer demand more than offset by much less demand from schools and other institutions. The harvest is mostly over in northern states with good field yields reported. Southern Louisiana and Texas are waiting for the second crop harvest to start. Producers had to endure Hurricane Delta and then Zeta in Louisiana, and some of the second crop Rice got hurt. Quality is said to be very good everywhere.

Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be below normal.

Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1214 and 1190 January. Support is at 1233, 1225, and 1218 January, with resistance at 1250, 1257, and 1262 January.

CORN AND OATS

General Comments: Corn and Oats were lower last week despite some great export demand in the corn market. The weekly SDA export sales report showed sales of over 2.4 million tons and then USDA announced on Thursday that Mexico had bought 1.4 million tons of US Corn. There was no export demand from China last week in the daily announcements. US weather was tough for harvesting last week with wet and cold conditions for much of the Midwest. Conditions are much improved this week with warmer and drier weather and the harvest is underway again. Yield reports have generally been good except for the drought and derecho areas of Iowa.

Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 204,000 tons of US Corn.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with no objectives. Support is at 393, 386, and 384 December, and resistance is at 410, 413, and 415 December. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 274 December. Support is at 295, 291, and 285 December, and resistance is at 305, 310, and 312 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS

General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed lower on less Chinese demand. China has not appeared in the daily sales announcements from USDA in over a week now and the market is feeling the loss. China still needs to buy for crushers but appears to have bought what was necessary for the reserve. The weather in the US is good for any remaining harvest as it has turned drier and warmer this week after a cold and wet week last week. The weather in South America is improved. Showers and rains have fallen in most of Brazil and much of Argentina. Southern Brazil and Paraguay have missed out on the good rains but did get a few showers. Soybeans are actively being planted in Brazil.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1026 January. Support is at 1047, 1038, and 1034 January, and resistance is at 1075, 1088, and 1100 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 359.00, 341.00, and 340.00 December. Support is at 372.00, 369.00, and 368.00 December, and resistance is at 384.00, 392.00, and 394.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3130 December. Support is at 3270, 3210, and 3150 December, with resistance at 3400, 3440, and 3480 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL

General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher on ideas of decreasing production and private reports of stronger demand last week but lower today. Ideas are that MPOB can show lower ending stocks this month. Chart trends are trying to turn up again. It is seasonally a time for trees to produce more due to more regular rains. Getting workers to do the harvest remains hard and the lack of labor has been a big problem. At least some of the plantation owners have asked for more migrant workers to cover the lack of workers that can be sourced locally. Soybean Oil and Canola were lower on weaker US and world petroleum prices. Trends are mostly sideways in Soybean Oil and in Canola. Canola farmers are selling due to harvest pressure, and industry and speculators are starting to sell now. The Canadian Dollar is higher but Canola is still considered relatively cheap in the world market. Harvest in the Prairies is almost done and yields are reported to be very strong.

Overnight News: AmSpec said that Malaysian Palm Oil exports were 1.701 million tons this month, from 1.631 million last month.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 535.00, 529.00, and 526.00 January, with resistance at 544.00, 547.00, and 553.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2980, 2940, and 2860 January, with resistance at 3120, 3150, and 3180 January.

Disclaimer: Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also ...

more
How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience.

Comments

Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.