Grains Report - Friday, May 1

WHEAT:
General Comments: Wheat (WEAT) markets were higher along with the other markets, but rallied less on forecasts for beneficial rains in Europe and into Russia. World cash markets in general are much cheaper than those prices offered from the US. That will help keep any US export sales low and routine. The world weather is important for new crop prices. US weather has been dry in the central and southern Great Plains and very wet in southern and eastern sections of the Midwest as well as the Midsouth, Delta, and Southeast. It has been dry in the northern Great Plains and into the Canadian Prairies. Europe has also been dry but was expected to get some very beneficial rains this week. It remains dry in the Ukraine and into southern Russia, but they could also get beneficial rains in the next couple of weeks. Australia is in mostly good condition after several years of drought. Rains are currently forecast for eastern areas but western areas should stay dry. Argentina is still harvesting its Corn and Soybeans crops and has not really planted its Winter Wheat crop yet.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers on Saturday and Monday. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers on Saturday and Monday Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers on Friday and Sunday, otherwise mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should trend to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 487 July. Support is at 507, 499, and 488 July, with resistance at 525, 535, and 540 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 458 July. Support is at 468, 462, and 458 July, with resistance at 479, 489, and 496 July. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 482 July. Support is at 503, 497, and 491 July, and resistance is at 516, 520, and 526 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was mixed. July came back to close with small losses. The new crop months displayed much less volatility. The domestic situation remains tight for the old crop. Some producers are selling the next crop and some significant hedge selling has been seen in new crop months in futures but this has dried up as Arkansas has been cool and wet for planting. Planting was active last week in the state but has been shut down again in all areas. Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the export sales pace in general has been very good. The weekly crop progress reports showed that southern Rice is emerging well, but that crops in Arkansas and Mississippi need drier weather to get into the ground. Overall planting and emerging progress is now behind the five-year average.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions Temperatures should be generally below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1444, 1432, and 1403 July, with resistance at 1482, 1548, and 1562 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn (CORN) was higher on better than expected weekly export sales and hopes for more. Funds were noted covering shorts in the session. China issued a new TRQ for 1.5 million tons of Corn and there are hopes that much of the business will flow to the US.. USDA reported that Corn planting progress was above the trade expectations and that implies that a big crop is coming this Fall. The main fundamental remains demand destruction caused by the lack of ethanol demand and the lack of feed demand. Both have been detrimentally affected by the Coronavirus. The virus has caused states to impose stay at home orders on its people, meaning no one is driving and consuming gas. Some states are starting to open now in the US but it is unclear if the people will move out and enjoy life as before. The experience in other countries suggests that the people will be very cautious in any activities and really not go out and spend money or hit the stores as before. President Trump indicated yesterday that he was willing to sign a Defense Production order to open the meats processors with some health protections and that could help move the backlog of Cattle and Hogs and start feeding again. Driving will be significantly less either way. Feed demand has been reduced as packers have been forced to shut [plants down due to infected employees in the plants. Wholesale beef and pork prices are up sharply, but cattle and hog producers are seeing very cheap prices and are liquidating herds. The Corn demand has been significantly reduced.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 301, 328, and 295 July, and resistance is at 308, 315, and 323 July. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 288 and 294 July. Support is at 281, 278, and 275 July, and resistance is at 308, 315, and 323 July.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans (SOYB) and products were higher on fund short covering and news that China had bought at least 300,000 tons of US Soybeans. The demand has been slow with the significant competition from Brazil. The Real has weakened a lot against the US Dollar and Brazil producers can sell at very high prices in the local currency. The Real was higher against the US Dollar once again yesterday but remains at very weak levels. Meanwhile, Soybean Meal demand has been supported by logistical issues in Argentina. The Parana River has been very low and ships are not able to load the full amount of Soybeans or products. Demand has shifted to the US and also to Brazil. Some forecasts for improving rains in southern Brazil and northern Argentina offer hope for improved logistics in coming weeks. The export meal demand has helped keep the US crush very strong. Domestic meal demand has suffered along with the demand for Corn due to reduced feed demand caused by the Coronavirus and the problems it has caused feed operations. President Trump has indicated that he is willing to sign a Defense Production order to open meats processing plants with some health restrictions imposed so it is hoped that Cattle and Hogs will start to move and that feed operations can improve.
Overnight News: China bought 264,000 tons of US Soybeans yesterday.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 808 and 781 July. Support is at 830, 818, and 812 July, and resistance is at 843, 857, and 861 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 285.00 and 279.00 July. Support is at 285.00, 282.00, and 279.00 July, and resistance is at 291.00, 294.00, and 296.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2560, 2510, and 2480 July, with resistance at 2670, 2820, and 2910 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher on outside market strength as Palm Oil in Dalian rallied. Soybean Oil and Crude Oil were also higher. Palm Oil had found some support from reduced production potential in Southeast Asia as workers are affected by the virus. Meanwhile, Canola has found support from the recent recovery in Soybean Oil and closed mixed. Canola is more of a food oil than the others, although it also has bio fuels uses.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 459.00, 455.00, and 452.00 July, with resistance at 466.00, 468.00, and 471.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are down with objectives of 1970 and 1710 July. Support is at 1990, 1970, and 1940 July, with resistance at 2070, 2120, and 2180 July.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry. Temperatures should average near to below normal.

Disclaimer: Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also ...

more
How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience.

Comments