GOLD CONSOLIDATES AHEAD OF FRESH PUSH HIGHER

The recent sell-off in gold, triggered in part by this week’s FOMC rate cut, is slowly being recouped as short-term support holds firm. The fundamental backdrop for gold remains positive with safe-haven demand being driven by the ongoing war of words between the US and Iran over the Saudi oil refinery attacks. Both sides have dialed back their rhetoric in the last 24 hours, but the situation remains volatile.

Gold pressed into support around $1,484/oz. earlier in the week before moving back above $1,500/oz. Support remains firm and further bullish consolidation above here could see this week’s high around $1,512/oz. come back under pressure in the days ahead. The CCI indicator has moved out of oversold territory and suggests that buyers may be starting to regain control.

GOLD PRICE DAILY CHART (JANUARY – SEPTEMBER 20, 2019)

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IG Client Sentiment data show that 70.0% of retail traders are net-long of gold, a bearish contrarian indicator. See how daily and weekly shifts in positioning change trader sentiment.

SILVER MAY STRUGGLE TO RETEST RECENT HIGH

Silver’s recent bull run may have run its course in the short-term with the sharp sell-off from the September 4 high print at $19.66/oz. looking unlikely to be unwound. Silver has found reasonable support at $17.52/oz. and this level needs to hold if silver is to inch back higher. The CCI indicator has just turned higher off the oversold zone and a period of consolidation is needed if silver is to move higher. If support fails, then silver may retest a cluster of lows between $16.80/oz. and $17.00/oz.

SILVER DAILY PRICE CHART (DECEMBER 2018 – SEPTEMBER 20, 2019)

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