The gold price turned to the downside and is trading at $2,168 at the time of writing. The US dollar’s rebound weighed down the precious metal.

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• The US data should move the rate today.
• Taking out the pivot point activates a larger drop.
• The median line could attract the price.

The gold price turned to the downside and is trading at $2,168 at the time of writing. The US dollar’s rebound weighed down the precious metal.

However, the bias remains bullish despite minor retreats. A larger correction is far from being confirmed. The US reported higher inflation in February, but the price of gold changed little, as the USD seemed undecided.

Today, the fundamentals should be decisive again. The US is to release high-impact data. Retail sales are expected to announce a growth of 0.8% after the drop of 0.8% in the previous reporting period, while core retail sales could register a growth of 0.5%.

Furthermore, the PPI may report a 0.3% growth for the second month in February. Core PPI could register a 0.2% growth in the last month versus the 0.5% growth in January, while the Unemployment Claims indicator is expected to be at 218K in the last week. Positive US data should lift the greenback and could push the XAU/USD down again.

Gold Price Technical Analysis: Overbought

Gold 1-hour chart

From a technical point of view, the XAU/USD moves sideways in the short term. Escaping from the up-channel pattern, the price signaled a potential corrective phase. Still, the outlook remains bullish as long as it stays above the weekly pivot point of $2,151.

After the last drop, a minor rebound was in the cards as the metal needed to retest the new supply zone before going down. I’ve drawn a descending pitchfork, so gold could slip lower if it stays below the upper median line (uml). The median line (ml) could attract the price if it stays within the pitchfork’s body.

However, a larger downside movement could be activated only after a valid breakdown below the pivot point (2,151) and through the median line (ml).

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