Gold In Top Gear


Commensurate this weekend with the Grand Prix, we also find Gold in top gear (GLD). 

For on a closing points basis from Gold's low of 1683 this past 30 March, price in settling yesterday (Friday) at 1882 has since driven 199 points (+11.8%) higher across those 37 trading days. Apply that rate from your tachometer to your speedometer's odometer and you'll find it reads Gold 2713 at year-end. ('Course hardly is Gold's undulating circuit a straight-line dragstrip).

Still, like point-acceleration paces happened essentially twice in last year's COVID-driven "fear-and-debasement" volatility, prior to which we must go all the way back to 2012 to find like points changes up through the gear box. Nevertheless, cue Monsieur Le Chiffre, ['Casino Royale', 1967]:

"...Mr. Bond, we aren't playing for marbles..."

Indeed we are not, for Gold is now being played -- and positively so -- for real.

So purposeful across the past seven-plus weeks has been Gold's gain that -- even more impressively -- 'tis been up and largely through the 1800s' structural price resistance to which we've alluded in recent pieces. Were such pace to continue, Gold would reach our forecast high for this year of 2401 come 08 October. But as inferred, we give all due deference to the "Nothing Moves in a Straight Line Dept.", albeit 'tis an intriguing mathematical point.

Intriguing as well is the entirety of the BEGOS Markets' metals triumvirate leading the trading pack from one month (21 trading days) ago-to-date. In the following two-panel graphic at left we've the percentage tracks for robust Gold vs. the languishing S&P 500 (the latter in the throes of what traders may in hindsight refer to as a "massive top"). Then at right we've a table of those changes for all the BEGOS components plus a few other markets; (and that's no "typo" at the bottom) (SPX):

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