Commodity prices do not move in lockstep with each other. In the olden days, people used the price of copper (“Dr. Copper”) to forecast economic growth. Now it may be that iron ore (which is not as publicly priced as copper) is the new standard for prediction. Iron ore is looking healthy given the messy outlook in many parts of the world.

Gold, a unit of exchange, a store of value, and a medium of exchange, rather than a mere raw material, has apparently disconnected from commodity pricing, both on its upward and now downward trajectory. Silver, however, still acts like a normal mere commodity.

And oil, about which I wrote yesterday, is no longer a fundamental indicator.

A new referendum in Switzerland, the land of direct democracy, is going to tackle the role of gold. On Nov. 30, Swiss will vote on new measures on gold.

The referendum would compel the Swiss National Bank, the central bank, to store all Swiss gold reserves inside Switzerland, and not, for example, in the vaults of the Federal Reserve. The Swiss CB would also have to keep gold holdings to cover 20% of all its assets. And it would be obliged to never sell gold again, ever, for any reason.

Wilhelm Tell Overture

The motive of these measures is the desire to build up the battered respectability of Swiss banks. And a bit of pure Wilhelm Tell Overture nationalism and protectionism, a feature of many recent Swiss votes.

However the impact might actually be the reverse of what is intended. If foreigners who have gold held in Swiss bank vaults fear that it may be snatched, they will pull the money. Swiss bank storage charges are high and disauasive in any case.

Switzerland is the prime gold storage site on earth. While total holdings of client gold are not published, our advertiser Bullionvault.com (which likes its clients to store their gold in Britain) estimates that foreign investors placed 1,400 metric tonnes of the yellow metal in Swiss bank vaults in the period from 2009 and 2013. Despite much lower fees in Britain, about 75% of Bullionvault.com users store their gold in Switzerland even if they trade it in Britain.

If the referendum passes, the Swiss CB will have to buy more gold than has piled up in Swiss vaults over the past 4 years, at least 1,500 tonnes. This is about the same amount as Switzerland sold off in 2000-2008 (after an earlier referendum allowed it.)

The CB has taken a lead in opposing a oui-ja-si vote in the referendum, threating deflation and recession in Switzerland and the rest of Europe. It also violates a treaty between 22 central banks on gold trading.

But there are precedents for interfering with the free transfer of gold. In 1933 the new Roosevelt administration banned hoarding, exporting, or trading the yellow metal. All gold was supposed to be turned over to the US Treasury. I was given a $5 gold piece to wear in my shoe (as something old, to bring prosperity) when I got married. It had been hidden from the Feds.

The other precendent is Germany's CB decision to repatriate the country's gold from the Federal Reserve Bank here and the heredity and profligate enemy, France. It was announced at the start of last year. So far, almost no gold has yet been shipped back to Germany of the nearly 700 tonnes the Bundesbank owns. At the rate of movement last year the German gold hoard will not be completed as targeted in 2020. (Thanks to Adrian Ash, head of research at Bullionvault.com for help with this article.)

Gold is up again today as an alternative to dollars and stocks. The euro, the yen, and the Swiss franc are all up about 1% which is good news for our portfolio diversified globally. Moreover, the switch of stock investors out of large cap shares into smaller more obscure ones should benefit our portfolios.

More news from Panama, Brazil, Canada, Norway, Argentina, Australia, Britain, Switzerland, and Israel.

*Banco Latino de Comercio, the multilateral financier of trade and loans to 23 Latin and Caribbean countries, reported Q3 income rose 17% from prior year Q3 to $26.6 mn or $0.69/sh. Panama uses the US dollar as its currency. It also rose 29% from Q2 thanks to higher net interest income, fees, and commissions. Revenues rose 15% to $43.2 mn.

Bladex, founded as a trade fiance institution, is increasingly underwriting loans and doing other high-margin business. But it also gained from high spreads between its cost of money and the interest it charges, which hit 1.93% in Q3.

Also boosting results was greater business efficiency especially in its commercial portfolios. And the bank has high credit quality customers, with a non-accrual rate of 0.06% on outstanding loans, probably a world record. Non performing loan balances are covered 21.1x by credit provisions, another world record.

CEO Rubens Amaral jr warned about the rest of the year, citing “growing political tensions in various parts of the world including Latin America” and “slowing growth”. He noted that both Brazil and Mexico now issued “full year growth forecasts that are well below projections made at the beginning of the year” and cited lower commodity prices as another risk. But he then reiterated BLX targets for 2014 portfolio growth of 10-13%. And he expects 2015 growth to “moderately improve over a modest 2014” which would improve Bladex prospects.

*Performance Sports Group (PSG, formerly Bauer, no longer reporting in loonies) reported FY Q1 adjusted cash flow of US$39.9 mn, below consensus estimates of $40.8 mn. EPS however met consensus as 51 loony cents per share. Sales were in-line at $197.1 mn, up 28% from Q1 2013-4. Comments Martin Ferera, out man with the ice hockey stick: “the group is balanced now for summer and winder but carries a huge debt load. It is 4x leveraged, more than double the rest of the sporting goods industry, partly because it was spun out of a private equity group.

Hockey is still the key business line with sales up 8% mostly from sticks, helmets, and uniforms. Lacrosse sales rose 7%. Its new business, baseball and softball, after the merger of Easton (a US firm) rose 51% mainly becaue of an early launch of the Torq bat.

PSG is highly leveraged but expects to pay down the cost of baseball over the next 4 years via better sales and cost cutting in things like improved inventory and supply chain management.

It also expects to develop cross-sport technology using newly developed materials like carbon fiber

I have grandchildren who play lacrosse and ice hockey, how we got into this share. I also have a grown up son who plays softball and belongs to a team which became champions in its Boston league 3 years running. I thought softball was for girls until now. Scotia Bank has a buy on PSG with a C$22 target price, around $20 US.

*A boost for nuclear fuels from Cameco and others and lithium from Orocobre came from Lockheed's announcement via Reuters today that its “Skunk Works” developed a compact nuclear fuel reactor which produces no waste. It wuld use deuterium-tritium as fuel. Deuterium is a widely available. hydrogen isotope. Tritium is made from lithium using nuclear radiation. OROCF is Australian but its mines are in Argentina. Cameco is Canadian but has mines worldwide.

*BCE is going to the movies. The Canadian telco, via its Media sub, contracted with United Artists Media and Omnicom's Highway Entertainment as financier. This boosts the sports and entertainment offerings of CTV, Bell Media and Omnicom's jv network. CTV aims to boost its home-grown content rather than using foreign shows or hybrids like MasterChef Canada or Canadian Idol. The winters are long and it is cold, so you want to stay home rather than hitting the cinema.

Teva Before The Supremes

*Teva will plead its case for a longer patent for Copaxone before the US Supreme Court starting today. Among those preparing generics is Novartis. TEVA is down over 5% today over fear that its blockbuster will lose protection. Copaxone generates about half the profits for the Israeli firm.

*Today's Financial Times Lex column writes about the charms of salmon fish farms and tips Marine Harvest shares, which our reporter and lox connoisseur Harry Geisel wrote up months ago. Lex likes the ~20% 10-yr growth of sales and the 8 quarters of higher free cash flow despite heaving capex. And Q3, reported yesterday showed sales up and profits “decent.” We told you first. MHG is down 3.5% today.

*Energy infrastructure stocks, notably Versesen, were the focus of a Scotia McLeodanalysis from Canada today. The shares are over-sold, the analysts wrote, unless oil prices drop by another 20% or more or interest rates jump sharply. “The stocks look attractive as income investments.” Our man in Canada Martin Ferera told you first. FCGYF.

*Paddy Power plc bought back 300,000 of its own shares in the Irish market yesterday. We noted that the share price fell to euros 53.5. PDYPF owns 2.184 mn of its shares in treasury, out of 50 mn outstanding.

*Schlumberger was downrated to neutral by Citigroup with a $92 target price. It is under $87 now, off over 5% today. However Sterne Agee says earnings are of secondary importance and says that SLB  faces no “major 3Q upside or downside surprise.” Sterne says the oilfield service sector offers “compelling value for medium- to long-term investors.”

The Samba Stopped

*The latest Brazilian polls seem to show that Dilma Rousseff will win the election after all and our Brazil shares are down again: Vale, Cosan, and indirectly, Portugal Telecom. There are many other possible explanations for the drops, like bearish contagion.

*GlaxoSmithKline starts selling older drugs next month to raise a hoped for $3 bn. The share is down despite news that several small European and Indian drug firms like Lundbeck and Lupin as well as KKR private equity have registered to join the bidding for the US drugs. GSK may keep emerging markets on its own books. Novartis bought GSK's cancer portfolio earlier this year in return for ceding its vaccine arm. We own GSK for the yield.

*Citibank is lightening up on its former global reach and Bank of Nova Scotia is believed to be a potential buyer of Latin American assets, for example in Peru. We changed money at a very secure BNS branch when we visited Machu Picchu some years ago.

*Phew. My son the CFA who manages our corporate pension plan sold the Shire SHPGY shares. The stock fell 22% as its AbbVie merger based on Irish tax advantages faltered. Sometimes you have to listen to your mother. The rot has spread to other pharma firms including Alkermes, ALKS, down 6.6% today.

*Thanks to all my readers who followed me into battered Benitec now up to $2.89-2.90 in US trading. We opted to follow our own views over those of the anonymous Dr KSS (who originally tipped the share in stockgumshoe.com). Dr KSS appears to be deranged based on his e-mail to me yesterday, published here. BTEBY still has a long way to go to become a profitable holding and it is being actively shorted Down Under where it is HQ'd, as Ozzies don't understand how FDA trials are run.

Fund news:

*Africa Opportunity Fund rose 5.6% in US trading today as the realization that Ebola is a global problem took off some pressure on its share price. AROFF primarily trades in US$ in London where it fell today.