Global Macro Strategist

Today’s Highlights

  • Economic Club
  • Kiwi Flys
  • Payments War Heats Up

Please note: All data, figures & graphs are valid as of November 13th. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you can afford to lose.

Traditional Markets

Unfortunately, the President’s speech at the Economic Club last night was a total let down. Rather than some real progress, in the end, we were treated to the same tired talking points.

We’ve heard it before… China really wants a deal but I’m not sure if I want to make a deal. We’re getting close to a deal but if we don’t make a deal tariffs will go up again. That, along with some swipes at the Fed who raised rates too much and didn’t cut them fast enough. So basically, zero progress.

Also weighing on stocks today is the Spanish government who finally managed to put together a coalition, breaking a 6-month deadlock. Unfortunately, though, it seems like the deal will share powers between unnatural allies and the cabinet will need to be split between them. The Spanish Index is not happy about this at all…

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Though I’m glad that the global recession that seemed so certain a few weeks ago, now seems to be off the table, it’s not exactly reassuring to see stocks tapering off lately. Still, the FOMO among top analysts has been getting strong lately and that’s not something that I’d personally choose to trifle with.

The Kiwi Flys

Last night the Forex market was served with a cold surprise as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand refused to cut interest rates.

A cut was definitely what the markets had ordered and seem to have been priced in but instead, the RBNZ decided to hold fire. The result on the NZDUSD was a massive pump of 1.3% in less than a minute.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Now, not sure how many of you were able to catch that trade. Probably not too many but the point here is the trend of central banks cutting rates is now in question. Certainly, the Fed did their darndest in the last meeting to signal that the cuts are done. Perhaps this sentiment is being felt elsewhere as well. In any case, the future of global monetary policy seems pretty uncertain at this particular moment.

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