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Speculators who were anticipating a sustained turn higher in the GBP/USD currency pair were certainly disappointed again last week. Day traders continued to latch onto the GBP/USD pair as the US dollar maintained a slight amount of strength.

The GBP/USD pair went into the weekend near the 1.21175 level. The currency pair touched the 1.20690 ratio the day before this movement. The GBP/USD pair has been able to stay above the 1.20000 level rather consistently, which is likely viewed as an important psychological mark.

On Oct. 4, the GBP/USD duo traded near the 1.20375 ratio briefly. The fluctuations witnessed near lows have been producing reversals higher, which traders may try to take advantage of.

The high for the GBP/USD pair this past week was accomplished on Tuesday, when it touched the 1.22890 vicinity, only for it to begin moving lower again. The value that the pair closed at on Friday certainly was within its lower realms. Behavioral sentiment remained fragile due to global considerations and economic concerns for financial institutions. This caused a rather solid amount of uncertainty and a lack of risk appetite.

The US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England This Week

GBP/USD pair traders need to be aware that the US Federal Reserve and Bank of England will make their monetary policy decisions regarding interest rates this Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. Both central banks are expected to keep their key borrowing rates in place.

Rhetoric from the Fed on Wednesday will be important and could cause a stir. The US is producing consistent data that shows American consumers remain spenders. The UK economy has produced lackluster data, but it has also shown signs of having slightly better results than anticipated.  

However, the Fed, while not likely to raise the Federal Funds Rate this week, will probably continue to sound rather hawkish and let financial institutions know interest rates will remain elevated. The prospect of another hike remains real.

The BoE will likely take on a more dovish-sounding tone, which may make GBP/USD traders nervous. The recent price levels of the GBP/USD pair have remained low and perhaps oversold, but predicting when a sustained surge higher will be triggered would be difficult as financial houses have remained nervous globally.

The 1.20000 Level Remains in Sight, But Will a Test Unfold and Cause a Reaction?

• As the GBP/USD pair has recently traded near one-month lows, meaning it has touched values previously seen in March of this year, speculators may want to speculate on upside action. However, this could be very dangerous.
• Nervous trading will likely continue this week, which is almost certain to produce rather choppy conditions.
• Technical traders may be looking for another drop lower from the GBP/USD pair to see if support can hold near the 1.20000 ratios. Traders may then anticipate a pop upwards.
• However, behavioral sentiment could cause more dangerous price velocity if global markets suddenly turn more risk-averse.

GBP/USD Weekly Outlook: Speculative Price Range for the GBP/USD Pair is 1.20125 to 1.22990

The trend lower in the GBP/USD currency pair has continued to be demonstrated, and traders looking for more downside action cannot be blamed. However, for the currency pair to trade much lower, another dose of negative events will likely have to hit the global markets, making the US dollar a safe-haven option.

If this doesn’t happen and the markets instead remain tranquil and cautious, results may produce rather choppy movement in the GBP/USD currency pair.

While it may be tempting to believe the GBP/USD pair is oversold and will surely turn higher, this momentum is purely speculative at the moment. Buyers of the GBP/USD pair should remain realistic with their targets, particularly if they are short-term traders who need to protect a limited amount of trading funds. The combination the Fed and the BoE, along with other global events unfolding, could make for another temperamental week of trading.

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