Gas Skyrockets As Severe Cold Increasingly Likely To Close Out January

February natural gas prices skyrocketed almost 16% higher today, gapping up significantly last evening and continuing to move higher through the day today. 

natural gas commodity weather

The role of weather was very readily apparent with the February gas contract dragging the whole strip higher on the day. 

natural gas commodity weather

Most notable was a huge move higher in the February/March G/H spread relative to the last time prompt month gas traded around these levels. 

natural gas commodity weather

Our subscribers will well-prepared for this move. Our Pre-Close Update on Friday highlighted that we should see "Moderately Bullish" weather forecast trends over the weekend. 

natural gas commodity weather

The result was a Slightly Bullish sentiment that said at least $3.25 should be tested today following Friday's rally, which verified well as we gapped slightly above that level. Then this morning our sentiment remained "Moderately Bullish" as we outlined the potential for prices to continue running on severe cold to at least $3.5 even up 9.3% on the day already. 
 

natural gas commodity weather

natural gas commodity weather

Climate Prediction Center forecasts show this well with increased 6-10 and 8-14 Day cold risks this afternoon. 
 

natural gas commodity weather

We had remained consistent in our reports over the last couple of weeks indicating that significant cold in the final half or third of January was very likely, explaining consistent bullish weekly and seasonal natural gas sentiment that has finally played out. Our Seasonal Trader Report from December 18th shows this well. 

natural gas commodity weather

Cold in January took slightly longer to arrive than expected, but is now arriving in such force so as to make our mid-December January GWDD forecast realistic again. 

Tomorrow we will be updating our Seasonal Trader Report with our latest February and March GWDD forecasts and looking out along the natural gas future strip to where we see the most opportunity. This ...

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