Forex Today: U.S. Dollar Sees Strongest Monthly Gain In 5 Years
- As the month of June ends, the U.S. dollar made its strongest advance in the Forex market in the last 5 years. The USD has broken to new multi-month highs against the yen and euro, and the strong trends in EUR/USD and USD/JPY are most likely to continue over the coming days (FXY, UUP, FXE).
- Yesterday saw the benchmark broad U.S. stock market index, the S&P 500, again close at an all-time high. The index is likely to rise further over coming days. The technology index the Nasdaq 100 also reached a new all-time high briefly. Global stock markets are notably less bullish (NDX, SPX).
- In the Forex market, the USD is clearly the strongest major currency, while the Japanese yen, euro, and Swiss franc (FXF) are the weakest.
- The ADP non-farm payrolls forecast exceeded expectations yesterday, predicting that 692k new jobs were created last month, while the consensus forecast was 555k. The ADP has shown a poor record at forecasting the actual results in recent months. The real data will be released this Friday.
- Canadian GDP fell by 0.3% month on month, but this was seen as a relatively good performance by the Canadian economy as the market had been expecting a fall of 0.8%.
- Last week saw the first weekly rise in global new confirmed coronavirus cases in two months, suggesting that the pandemic is advancing again due to the spread of the more highly infectious Delta (Indian) variant. There is increasing concern over this in some countries, notably Australia which has begun a partial lockdown as local transmission seems to be beginning.
- It is estimated that 23.4% of the world’s population has received at least one vaccination against the novel coronavirus.
- Total confirmed new coronavirus cases worldwide stand at over 182.9 million with an average case fatality rate of 2.17%.
- The fastest progression in terms of immunizing a population against the coronavirus in all but the smallest states has been in Iceland, Bermuda, Kuwait, Bhutan, Israel, Chile, Uruguay, and Canada, which have given at least one shot to between 76% and 63% of their respective populations. For most of the world, a vaccine still remains distant. However, the pace of vaccination in the European Union, which now has immunized 50% of its population, has picked up significantly. In the U.S., 54% of the population has been vaccinated.
- The rate of new coronavirus infections appears to now be increasing most quickly in Bangladesh, Burma, Cambodia, Colombia, Cyprus, Ecuador, Fiji, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, South Korea, Kuwait (despite its high level of vaccination), Kyrgyzstan, Mexico, Panama, Russia, Senegal, South Africa, Tunisia, Uzbekistan, and the United Kingdom (despite its high level of vaccination).
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