Ferguson On My Mind

My father's younger brother, born about 1917, was arrested during the 1933 transition between normal government and Naziism in Germany for stealing fruit. I am not sure if my teen-aged uncle stole fruit from a shop or a neighbor's tree. But as a result, Uncle Rudi could not get a US visa and come to America with his siblings and his parents. He emigrated to Israel in 1937 instead.

I recall this family history as I read about the tragedy of Michael Brown in Ferguson, Missouri. Rudi was a silly teenager who was a target because of his race and because he committed a minor infraction of the law. And like Michael Brown, his life was put in danger because of this (if only years later). The difference is that even in the early days of Nazi Germany you were not shot for a minor theft. Can it be that a black American youth is at greater risk over a schoolboy error from the local cops than a Jewish boy in Nazi Germany?

When German Jewish refugees arrived in the US they were astonished at the level of oppression suffered by African-Americans, but also relieved that it meant they were not the prime targets.

Where is economic growth going to come from? I think it will spread from the USA and Britain to the European Union in the rest of 2014 going into 2015. The slack in global economic outlook appears to be general in most of the world, with poor performance in Japan, China, Australia, combined with falling output in Germany, the locomotive of Europe. France has opted to boost its deficit in order to offer stimulus to the economy, mainly to business. Italy is again formally in recession, having had two down quarters.

Deflation again is a risk. I think the economics fraternity are aware of the dangers and will act. In fact they have begun in Europe, as I report.

*Wall of shame; TevaVale, and Schlumberger were among the bottom 20 stock performers last week, according to the Financial Times. We lightened up on all three but they are still big parts of our portfolio. In the biggest monthly fallers, which may reflect a longer-term decline, the only stocks we formerly held were sold out: Tesco and BASF. Portugal Telecom has too small a market cap to be included. TEVA; VALE; SLB; TSCDY; BASFY and PT. PT is up some more.

*Thanks to what may have been a leak at Barron's (or smart moves by European shareholders who knew the cover story was coming), Schlumberger rose nearly 3% on Friday. SLB is rising more today starting in UK trading. The weekly's story got a lot of play although the SLB plan to up its profits was shared with analysts (but not the public) some months ago by CEO Paal Kibsgaard. He expects SLB will boost its EPS to $9-10 in 3 years, vs. $5.70 this year by growing its US shale side, and cost-cutting measures. He is Norwegian; SLB is Dutch; its controlling shareholders are French, all across the pond. SLB fell earlier last week after it revealed that it would lose 3% of sales in the current quarter because of sanctions against Russia. It is up 1.4% more in US trading so far, well below the pre-publication pop.

*Barron's reports in its blog that Sanford Bernstein has cut its outlook for VALE. Its analyst Paul Galt expects the Brazilian iron ore pellet firm to earn $2.15/sh this year vs a prior estimate of $2.55, mainly because higher H2 sales will incur higher costs. I think the big danger is another factor he didn't mention, the huge tax dispute with Brasilia over foreign-source profits taxed in Switzerland rather than at home. Big capex spending at home is actually a plus for Vale in its homeland, once the election is out of the way. Bernstein rates VALE neutral. I think it is a buy. If all that investment produces cheaper iron ore than Australia can (which is the point), it can make money even schlepping its ore to China. Moreover, it looks like VP-candidate Marina Silva will take up the challenge after ticket-leader Eduardo Campos was killed in a plane crash last week. Ms Silva is tied with Dilma Rousseff in the polls.

*Meatpacker JBS, my 2nd choice for playing the Russian ban on imports from countries which hit it with sanctions over Ukraine, is up on Deutsche Bank recommending it. We decided to go for the local play, OJSC Gruppa Cherkizovo whose Global Depositary Receipts are traded in $s as CHE in London.

*European banks are tapping into cheap European Central Bank funding to lend more to small businesses, with euros 250 bn on offer in addition to the earlier euros 1 trillion availabe via banks. Among those lining up for the cheap cash which will be available for 4-yr terms is Santander, SAN. Bloomberg estimates that banks will borrow up to 650 bn euros ($870 bn) to fund loans if there is enough demand from potential borrowers. That requires animal spirits among the potential small- and mid-sized companies supposed to apply for money. It will cost only 10 basis points over the ECB benchmark rate, currently 0.15%, or 0.25%. While the initial take-up has been modest, it is vacation time in Euroland. I expect that cheap money will tempt businesses to borrow.

*Also lining up with the ECB is Royal Bank of Scotland which can fund its Euro-zone business cheaply. We own RBS and Nat West prefs. RBS is selling the global Swiss side of its private bank, Coutts, which will continue to operate in Britain, handling, among others, the cheque account (sic) of the Queen.

*CAE landed a new contract combining its aviation and medical simulation businesses to provide training to the US Air Force Reserve Command (AFRC) for air medical evacuation training. The Canadian firm will supply a C-130 fuselage trainer configured for medical evacuation. The training will for personnel used pre-flight, in emergencies, and during flight.

The C-130 fuselage trainer will be fitted with a computer patient simulators mimicking cardiovascular, respiratory, and neurological systems, called iStan. The simulator human will bleed, have blood pressure, heart, and other clinical signs to teach the evacuators how to deal with them along with a wireless tablet instructor operator station for the teacher. This is a first combining CAE's old air training simulation with its CAE healthcare arm. The size of the contract was not revealed but it is likely to repeat.

*FiercePharma, a blog, today featured Reckitt Benckiser, RBGLY, which is spinning off to shareholders its $4.9 bn pharma arm, maker of under-tongue heroin treatment Suboxone, mainly because selling it produced only low bids. Reckitt is now focused on consumer lines, including OTC health products, sold increasingly in western rather than emerging markets where the company's earlier growth occurred. Under Bart Becht's successor, Rakesh Kapoor (himself of Indian heritage), RBGLY has upped its sales in the US and Europe last year by ~3%. Part of that resulted from buying up (expensively) the Schiff Nutrition vitamin and supplements firm Bayer tried to buy; and another deal this year added the K-Y lubricant to Reckitt's Durex condom line. Sanford Bernstein analysts told Bloomberg Kapoor can finance other deals by selling Reckitt's French mustard line to buy other healthcare stars, something like Procter & Gamble selling its Ivory soap line. Martin Ferera found this share.

*Novartis is back after Israeli Gamida Cell, reportedly buying 5% each from two insiders in the cancer therapy startup with options to buy more, according to Globes Israel, a website. Earlier this year, NVS was unable to buy control of Gamida for $600 mn because the board opposed it. Gamida uses umbilical cord blood to produce stem cells to treat leukemia and lymphoma patients needing a bone marrow transplant. The StemEx therapy was turned down for quick approval by the US FDA which wants more costly testing. The result was that Teva pulled out of the Gamida group which is now controlled by Elbit Medical and Clal Biotech of Israel, presumably the sellers. Gamida's staff own 47% of the stock. In return for funding another round of phase 3 trials to satisfy the FDA, NVS wins options to buy stock as milestones are reached that come to several hundred million dollars.

Interestingly enough, Teva did the phase 2-3 trials for StemEx. However Globessays Gamida has a new and even better stem-cell generation therapy now called NiCord. The Swiss and Israeli drug giants compete in global generics, NVS via its Sandoz sub.

*Down Under small cap Benitec Biopharma, which we reported on based on an article by Dr KSS in www.stockgumshoe.com (before its US Q listing) is up nearly 24% this morning, I think because of a write-up in www.seekingalpha.com which was nowhere as well-argued as KSS's. It is at $5.70; I paid $2/sh.

*Fund news from Japan and elsewhere:

Closed-end Fund Advisors of Richmond VA reports that Japan Small Capitalization Fund, JOF, has a dominant shareholder, 1607 Partners, which increased its stake by a fifth to just over 10% of the shares outstanding in the last quarter. 1607 is an unrelated registered investment advisor also in the Richmond area with $2 bn under management, mostly in closed-end funds and it reports to the SEC on its stakes.

*My bid to buy Aberdeen Japan Equity Fund, JEF, which owns large-cap stocks, may have been too low with the market foreseeing stimulus there. Watch this space. And remember we already have a diversified stake in the land of the rising sun. Japanese stocks rose sharply today.

*Africa Opportunity Fund is up nicely on a juvenile delinquent's article posted without credit to me on www.seekingalpha.com, up 10.25% today. We told you first and moreover gave the US ticker symbol.

*As I reported earlier, Global Logistics Properties plans a capital increase by REIT sales. It will be not in Singapore, as I anticipated, but in Japan, where its J-REIT will do a secondary issue raising the equivalent of $321 mn (US) mostly to international institutional investors. Only Japanese retail investors are allowed to buy on this issue, not US ones. The J-REIT will wind up only 15% owned by GBTZF. The money will be used to fund a JV with a Chinese state-owned logistics firm CMST Development. GBTZF is up on the news and other talk of Singaporean wealth fund ambitions.

*In response to a reader's concern about how to trade UK-listed Chinese small caps we cover thanks to research we get from UK brokerage Daniel Stewart, there are ways for Americans to buy the Chinese stock recommendations through Global Alliance Partners which operates in 24 countries and has $6 bn under management.

Daniel Stewart often acts as “nomad” for small Chinese stocks listed on the London Alternative Investment Market and this led last year to its joining Global Alliance during a conference in Beijing.

Two of the Global Alliance Partner members are Auerbach Grayson Co, 25 W. 45thSt., New York NY 10036; 212 557 4444david@agco.com; and

Terra Nova Capital Partners, 708 Third Ave., New York NY 10017; 212 495 9234;jsteinmetz@terracap.com. John Steinmetz also founded Spence-Trask Securities Inc;

You can also try Goldman Sachs with which Daniel Steward trades in the US.

For the record I have been able to trade Chinese small cap shares in the UK using my E-trade discount broker. The stocks are illiquid but also very cheap. They are covered not just by Stewart but also by analysts at Reuters. Daniel Stewart accepts non-US readers. They are at Becket House, 36 Old Jewry, London EC2E 8DD, UK; www.danielsteart.co.uk, 44 20776- 6931 or 6550.

Disclosure: None

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