Fed QE Daily – Jaysus Powell Will Walk On Water Next

The futures are pulling back this morning a day after Jaysus Powell channeled Mario Draghi and promised that the Fed would do whatever it takes to keep the US economy afloat.

He made a point of including screwing hardworking, honest grandparents who saved and avoided risk all their lives. Jaysus said, “Too bad, suckers! You lose.”

Wednesday, the Fed bought $7 billion in Treasury paper and $6 billion in MBS from the Primary Dealers. That’s a LOT LESS than they were doing a couple of weeks ago.

Still, stocks marched higher yesterday and Treasuries have held near their highs in prices, lows in yields. But this morning, futures traders in the ES saw an opportunity to lighten up. Stop back here in a few minutes for a look at the today’s technical setup and outlook.

Of the $13 billion the Fed bought yesterday, only the Treasury settlements are next day. The MBS won’t settle until mid May. They’re not an issue right now. They will be when all the prior forwards settle May 13-20. For now, the dealers only see $7 billion per day in cash from the Fed via the Fed’s Treasury purchases from them.

Notice that I said “only.” That’s because the dealers and their institutional customers need to absorb $241 billion in Treasury issuance this week. How the hell are they paying for that? This isn’t just this week. It’s every week.

The Fed pays for its Treasury purchases by depositing newly imagined money into the dealers’ bank/trading accounts at the Fed. The Fed is injecting around $40 billion into the market this week via these purchases. Where’s the other $200 billion to pay for the new Treasuries coming from? If stocks or bonds don’t sell off, it’s coming from the existing, and shrinking, pool of cash that the Fed pumped into in Primary Dealer trading accounts a couple of weeks ago.

The dealers can do whatever they want with that cash. They use some to buy their next allotment of Treasuries. The rest they use to accumulate other inventory, mark it up, and distribute it to their institutional sheep customers. But if the Fed isn’t replenishing the pool, Then the pool is being drained. It’s going into the US Treasury, and the Treasury then spends it to keep the US economy barely functioning.

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