Fed Hikes As Expected, Dot Plot Of Expected Hikes Changes Significantly

The Fed did little this month but babble the same story about strong jobs and its dual mandate. Expectations did change.

Inquiring minds may wish to read the December 19 FOMC Statement.

It contains nothing but the usual drivel about jobs and maintaining its "dual mandate".

Fed Statement Tracker

The Wall Street Journal Fed Statement Tracker shows the Fed did add some language about vigilance as I expected.

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There you have it. The Fed "will continue to monitor global economic and financial developments and assess their implications for the economic outlook".

How comforting!

Dot Plot September 27, 2018

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​In December, 6 participants thought that hikes topped at 3.0-3.25%.

In September, 4 participants thought the Fed would stop at 3.25-3.50% and another thought the Fed would get to 3.50-3.75%.

Expectations have come down. They are still preposterously high.

Recession Baked in the Cake

It's Too Late to Matter Now what the Fed says it will do, or even what the Fed actually does do.

A recession is now baked in the cake.

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