Year-over-year import price indices inflation grew from +1.4 % to +3.0 %.

Analyst Opinion of the Import / Export Price Situation

Per the BLS:

U.S. import prices advanced 1.3 percent in February following a 1.4-percent increase in January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Higher fuel and nonfuel prices contributed to the advances in each of the past 2 months. Prices for U.S. exports also rose in February, increasing 1.6 percent, after advancing 2.5 percent the previous month.

Note that:

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic Impact on February 2021 Import and Export Price Index Data The Bureau of Labor Statistics did not make changes to either the collection method or estimation methodology for the February 2021 release of U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes. Survey response rates for February were 5.2-percentage points lower than those in February 2020.

Import Oil prices moved from a revised +9.0 % to +11.1 % month-over-month, and export agricultural prices up from +6.0 % to +2.9 %

• the markets were expecting (from Econoday):

There is only a marginal correlation between economic activity, recessions, and export/import prices. Prices can be rising or falling going into a recession or entering a period of expansion. Econintersect follows this data series to adjust economic activity for the effects of inflation where there are clear relationships.

Econintersect follows this series to adjust data for inflation.

Year-over-Year Change - Import Prices (blue line) and Export Prices (red line)

There are three cases of deflation outside of a recession - early 1990′s, late 1990′s, and mid 2000′s. Import price deflation is normally associated with the strengthening of the dollar relative to other currencies.

According to the press release:

Imports: The price index for U.S. imports increased 1.3 percent in February following a 1.4-percent advance the previous month. The January rise was the largest monthly advance since March 2012. With the exception of a 0.1-percent downturn in October, import prices have increased each month since April 2020. Prices for U.S. imports rose 3.0 percent over the past year, the largest 12-month advance since the index increased 3.4 percent from October 2017 to October 2018. Fuel Imports: Prices for import fuel advanced 11.1 percent in February, after increasing 9.0 percent in January, 7.3 percent in December, and 4.4 percent in November. The February rise was the largest advance since the index increased 15.2 percent in July 2020. An 11.3-percent rise in petroleum prices and an 11.2- percent advance in natural gas prices each contributed to the February increase in import fuel prices. The price index for import fuel rose 6.5 percent over the past year, the first 12-month advance since a 13.2- percent increase in January 2020. Prices for petroleum imports rose 5.5 percent for the year ended in February and natural gas prices advanced 44.8 percent over the same period.

Exports: U.S export prices advanced 1.6 percent in February, after a 2.5-percent rise in January which was the largest 1-month increase since the index was first published monthly in December 1988. Prices for U.S. exports advanced 5.2 percent for the year ended in February and have not recorded a monthly decline since the index fell 3.5 percent in April 2020. The February 12-month rise was the largest over-the-year increase since the index advanced 5.3 percent in June 2018. (See table 2.) Agricultural Exports: The price index for agricultural exports rose 2.9 percent following a 6.0-percent increase the previous month. Export agricultural prices have not recorded a monthly drop since August 2020. In February, higher prices for corn, fruit, soybeans, cotton, dairy products, meat, and wheat more than offset lower nut prices. Prices for agricultural exports advanced 16.1 percent over the past year, the largest 12-month rise since the index increased 22.7 percent in September 2011. The advance was primarily led by higher soybean and corn prices.

Month-over-Month Change - Import Prices (blue line) and Export Prices (red line)

The biggest mover of import and export prices is usually oil (imports) and agricultural products (exports).

Oil Import Price Change Month-over-Month (blue line) and Agriculture Export Change Month-over-Month (red line)

Caveats on the Use of the Export / Import Price Index

Both import and export prices index values shown in this post is a weighted average for the entire category of exports or imports. The BLS has many sub-categories relating to a particular commodity or goods. Econintersect using spot checks believes these subindexes are accurate.