February 2019 Initial Unemployment Claims Rolling Average Highest Since January 2018

Market expectations for weekly initial unemployment claims (from Econoday) was 222 K to 225 K (consensus 225,000), and the Department of Labor reported 239,000 new claims. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 225,000 (reported last week as 224,750) to 231,750. The rolling averages generally have been equal to or under 300,000 since August 2014.

Analyst Opinion of Initial Unemployment Claims

This marks 201 consecutive weeks of initial claims below 300,000, the longest streak since 1970. The general trend of the 4 week rolling average is a slowing rate of improvement year-over-year which historically suggests a slowing economy.

It should be pointed out that Econintersect watches the year-over-year change on the 4 week moving average. There is always some seasonality which migrates into the seasonally adjusted data, and year-over-year comparisons helps remove some seasonality. The four week rolling average of initial claims are 1.5 % higher (worse than the 0.1 % lower for last week) than they were in this same week a year ago.

 

Claim levels are at 40 year lows (with the normal range around 350,000 weekly initial unemployment claims of levels seen historically during times of economic expansion - see chart below).

 

From the Department of Labor:

In the week ending February 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 239,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 234,000 to 235,000. The 4-week moving average was 231,750, an increase of 6,750 from the previous week's revised average. This is the highest level for this average since January 27, 2018 when it was 234,000. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 224,750 to 225,000.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.2 percent for the week ending February 2, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending February 2 was 1,773,000, an increase of 37,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 1,736,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,750,250, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 1,741,250.

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