February 2019 Headline Industrial Production Marginally Improved But Year-Over-Year Growth Declined

The headlines say seasonally adjusted Industrial Production (IP) improved month-over-month. Our analysis shows the three-month rolling average insignificantly declined.

Analyst Opinion of Industrial Production

There was upward revision to the last 6 months of data. The best way to view this is the 3-month rolling averages which declined marginally. Industrial production remains in a short term downtrend.

Note that manufacturing significantly declined.

The manufacturing employment rate of growth is accelerating year-over-year.

 

  • Headline seasonally adjusted Industrial Production (IP) was up 0,1 % month-over-month and up 3.5 % year-over-year (YoY was published as 4.0 % last month).
  • Econintersect's analysis using the unadjusted data is that IP growth was up 0.1 % month-over-month, and is up 3.9 % year-over-year.
  • The unadjusted 3 month rolling average year-over-year rate of growth decelerated 0.1 % from last month, and is up 3.8 % year-over-year.
  • The market was expecting (from Econoday):
Headline Seasonally Adjusted Consensus Range Consensus Actual
IP (month over month change) +0.0 % to 1.1 % +0.4 % +0.1 %
IP Subindex Manufacturing (month over month change) +0.1 % to 0.5 % +0.4 % -0.4 %
Capacity Utilization 78.3 % to 79.0 % 78.5 % 78.2%

IP headline index has three parts - manufacturing, mining and utilities - manufacturing was down 0.4 % this month (up 1.0 % year-over-year), mining up 0.3 % (up 12.5 % year-over-year), and utilities were up 3.7 % (up 9.0 % year-over-year). Note that utilities are 10.8 % of the industrial production index, whilst mining also is 10.8 %.

Comparing Seasonally Adjusted Year-over-Year Change of the Industrial Production Index (blue line) with Components Manufacturing (red line), Utilities (green line), and Mining (orange line)

 

Unadjusted Industrial Production year-over-year growth for 2 years has been near or below zero - it is currently trending up and in expansion.

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