February 2019 Chicago Purchasing Managers Barometer Improved

The Chicago Business Barometer recovered after last month's decline.

Analyst Opinion of Chicago PMI

The Fed manufacturing surveys have been trending down - and Chicago ISM, of course, went the other way.

Expectations this month from Econoday were 55.0 to 60.0 (consensus 55.8) with the actual at 64.7. A number below 50 indicates contraction.

Shaily Mittal, Senior Economist at MNI Indicators said:

The sharp pick-up in the Barometer to a level not seen in over a year, underpinned by the growth in demand and production, showcases a healthy image of the US economy. With the Fed's cautious approach towards monetary tightening along with soft inflation, firms remain optimistic about their business activity.

From ISM Chicago:

The MNI Chicago Business Barometer rose by 8 points to 64.7 in February, to the highest since December 2017. This month's gain was last matched in February 2017 and surpassed only by the 12.5 points hike recorded in January 2016. Optimism returned, with most Barometer components back at December 2018's level after last month's dip, indicating temporary factors at play in January. February's increase was led by four of the five Barometer components, with only Supplier Deliveries receding. The pick-up in demand contributed the most to the Barometer's rise. New orders rose by 15.2 points, the largest monthly rise since January 2016 when it jumped 17.4 points. Production was up 8.5 points to a fresh six-month high. Order Backlogs were up by 5.6 points, offsetting January's decline.

(Click on image to enlarge)

The Chicago ISM is important as it is a window into the national ISM reports which will be issued shortly. When you compare the graph below of the ISM Manufacturing Index against the Chicago PMI (graph above) - there is a general correlation in trends, but not necessarily correlation in values.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Source and read the full report: Chicago PMI

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