This morning's release of the May Existing-Home Sales showed that sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.8 million units from the previous month's 5.85 million. The Investing.com consensus was for 5.72 million. The latest number represents a 0.9% decrease from the previous month and its fourth in a row.

Here is an excerpt from today's report from the National Association of Realtors.

WASHINGTON (June 22, 2021) – Existing-home sales decreased for a fourth straight month in May, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Only one major U.S. region recorded a month-over-month increase, while the other three regions saw sales decline. However, each of the four areas again registered double-digit year-over-year gains.

Total existing-home sales,¹ https://www.nar.realtor/existing-home-sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, dropped 0.9% from April to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 5.80 million in May. Sales in total climbed year-over-year, up 44.6% from a year ago (4.01 million in May 2020).

"Home sales fell moderately in May and are now approaching pre-pandemic activity," said Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist. "Lack of inventory continues to be the overwhelming factor holding back home sales, but falling affordability is simply squeezing some first-time buyers out of the market.

"The market's outlook, however, is encouraging," Yun continued. "Supply is expected to improve, which will give buyers more options and help tamp down record-high asking prices for existing homes." [Full Report]

For a longer-term perspective, here is a snapshot of the data series, which comes from the National Association of Realtors. The data since January 1999 was previously available in the St. Louis Fed's FRED repository and is now only available for the last twelve months.

Over this time frame, we clearly see the Real Estate Bubble, which peaked in 2005 and then fell dramatically. Sales were volatile for the first year or so following the Great Recession.

The Population-Adjusted Reality

Now let's examine the data with a simple population adjustment. The Census Bureau's mid-month population estimates show a 19.2% increase in the US population since the turn of the century. The snapshot below is an overlay of the NAR's annualized estimates with a population-adjusted version.

Existing-home sales are 10.9% above the NAR's January 2000 estimate. The population-adjusted version is 5.9% below the turn-of-the-century sales.

Existing-Home Sales Median Prices for Single Family Homes

We've added a chart for the last 12 months of Existing-home sales median prices for single-family homes for reference.

The next release of existing home sales will be on July 22.