EUR/USD: Why Bulls May Come On Top As Three Forces Fight For Influence

Americans are off to a shopping spree, but does that make King Dollar unstoppable? The easy answer is that the answer depends on weekly jobless claims – Thursday’s critical data point – but there are other factors to take in into account.

Here are three factors to consider:

1) Stimulus stumbling blocks

President Joe Biden continues pushing through his proposed $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package and he is running into some reluctance from another Joe. Senator Joe Manchin III is the most conservative Democrat in the upper chamber and he is flexing his muscles. The West Virginia lawmaker opposes approving measures that would violate the “Byrd rule” – which limits any legislation passed by a small majority to strictly budgetary moves.

If Biden gets a smaller package – or any delay – would push investors back to bonds amid prospects of lower growth and less debt issuance. In turn, softer yields would make the dollar less attractive. All in all, progress on large stimulus is dollar positive and any road bumps would weigh on it.

2) Fed feels optimistic

The Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes from its January meeting showed that the world’s most central bank is upbeat on America’s growth prospects in 2021 – more than beforehand. However, the Fed seems unmoved from all the talk about higher inflation and is unlikely to raise rates nor taper its bond-buying scheme.

Under these circumstances, the greenback will likely remain under pressure.

3) Shopping but still out of work

EUR/USD most recent downward move was triggered by superb US Retail Sales – volume leaped by 5.3% in January, far above expectations. Some of the rise may be attributed to seasonal adjustments which are skewed by the pandemic. On the other hand, there is no doubt that the stimulus checks from the previous package that Congress passed contributed to the boost. Some are concerned that this good news is bad news – as it may lower pressure for stimulus.

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