The path of the least resistance is lower, with the next key support level being at 0.9500.

Bearish view

• Sell the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.9500.
• Add a stop-loss at 0.9725.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bullish view

• Set a buy-stop at 0.9700 and a take-profit at 0.9800.
• Add a stop-loss at 0.9600.

The EUR/USD price remained under pressure despite a hawkish statement by Christine Lagarde of the European Central Bank (ECB). It crashed to a low of 0.9560, which was the lowest level in decades and about 15.1% below where it started the year.

Hawkish ECB and Italian election

The EUR/USD price reacted to several important events. First, the market focused on the Italian election that was held on Sunday. As was widely expected, a coalition led by Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party won a decisive victory. The victory means that Italy will be led by a far-right party for the first time since the second world war.

Meloni has been critical of the European Union. However, in a recent statement, she sounded optimistic that she will work with the EU, which is supplying billions of euros to Italy. In a statement, Moody’s warned that Italy’s mountain of debt was vulnerable to negative growth, funding cost, and inflation developments. As a result, the 10-year government bond yield rose to 4.45%.

Meanwhile, in a statement, Christine Lagarde hinted that the central bank will continue hiking interest rates even as recession fears rose. She said that the bank will keep hiking in the coming three meetings to dampen demand and guard against persistent inflation.

The next key catalyst for the pair will be a statement by Jerome Powell of the Federal Reserve. Like other Fed officials, he is expected to signal that the bank will continue hiking interest rates in the final meetings of the year.

The US will also publish the latest consumer confidence data. Economists expect the numbers to reveal that confidence rose for the second straight month to 104.5. Other important numbers to watch will be US new home sales, house price index, and durable goods orders.

EUR/USD forecast

The EUR/USD pair has been in a strong downward trend in the past few months. This sell-off continued when the pair moved below the important support level at 0.9863, which was the lowest point in September.

It has dropped below all moving averages, signaling that bears are still in control. The MACD has continued falling while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved to the oversold level. Therefore, the path of the least resistance is lower, with the next key support level being at 0.9500. A move above the resistance at 0.9700 will invalidate the bearish view.

(Click on image to enlarge)

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